Why
the Chevy Volt will succeed (continued)
Thursday, November 29, 2007
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It’s not hard to imagine that smaller, all-electric
vehicles - even two-seaters - might prove to be more cost
effective than plug-in hybrids in a significant percentage
of driving conditions, such as for urban, day-to-day,
home-to-work commutes. Bob Lutz made this case to me at a
dinner on the eve of the LA Auto Show. In fact, believe it
or not, Lutz is a huge believer in electric vehicles, and
I don't mean from a corporate angle - as part of his job.
I mean Lutz is passionate about electric vehicles.
Conversely, while electric vehicles might outperform
plug-in hybrids in urban commuting, especially in terms of
costs, capacitor-powered hybrids could be more functional
and cheaper for longer distances.
Adding to the insanity and the complex confusion of
determining the future of the automobile, upon seeing Honda’s
FCX Clarity and Honda’s hydrogen Home Fueling
Station at the LA Auto Show -following my Equinox test
drive - this former hydrogen-highway-doubter now believes
that hydrogen fuel cell cars and the hydrogen economy are
scarily and surprisingly close to reality.
And, truthfully, I'd rather invest in hydrogen than in
nuclear power - which we will have to do if American cars
go electric. Of course, the hydrogen economy also works
very well with battery powered vehicles. So, maybe plug-in
hybrids will work for some, electrics for others,
ultracapacitor powered hybrids for others, and fuel cell
vehicles for even others.
Fortunately, the Chevy Volt can fail as a plug-in hybrid,
but win as some kind of capacitor powered hybrid, or as a
pure electric vehicle or even a hydrogen fuel cell vehicle
because all are E Flex possibilities. In reality, the Volt
is about much more than the Volt, it's about the E Flex
Drive.
In fact, the Volt could die quickly as a Volt plug-in, and
still succeed because of the momentum it will have driven
to E Flex. In the end, it's not the success of the Volt
that reigns supreme, it's the success of the E Flex Drive,
and the Volt has already almost guaranteed the E Flex
Drive will succeed - that makes the Volt a winner
regardless of how many vehicles are sold. If the Volt
fails, but the E Flex Drive succeeds, GM still wins.
While I don't agree that GM is miles ahead of Toyota in
plug-in hybrid technology, I do believe that GM, because
of the E Flex Drive, is well-positioned to be a leader in
the next generation of automobiles. Unlike some
automakers, GM is now prepared to follow the market in any
direction - even all directions. Nonetheless, every
direction will eventually point back to the electric drive
and that is the point, the very essence, of the E Flex
Drive.
That's the point of Toyota's Hybrid Synergy Drive as well,
and its why I've long thought Toyota was best positioned
for the future, but GM is now back in the game, but this
article is about the Volt, not Toyota.
The Chevy Volt is an icon for the E Flex Drive, for the
convergence of technologies and for GM's American
Revolution.
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