Why
the Chevy Volt will succeed
Thursday, November 29, 2007
It
really is more than just a hype machine!
I'm not sure that there has ever been a concept vehicle
that has resulted in more PR and hype than GM's Chevy
Volt plug-in.
For instance, despite the fact that GM received the first
and only lithium battery pack for the Chevy Volt just a
few weeks ago, David Kiley of Business Week has
already claimed that the Volt is "miles ahead"
of Toyota and Honda. Yet, today there isn't one single
Volt prototype that utilizes ANY of the potential Volt
battery packs. There is still the potential - which will
only be found in real world testing - that the battery
packs currently planned just won't work.
Crazy!
But there is a change brewing in the world and I've been
in a crazy sort of a mood since the LA Auto Show. Actually
this current streak of insanity dates back a few weeks
before the LA Show. That's when my belief in the
automotive revolution changed, and I've since been
reevaluating all my beliefs.
It all really started back in October when I was invited
to test drive one of GM's Chevy
Equinox Fuel Cell Vehicles. Now, the day before I test
drove the Equinox I would have told you that fuel cell
vehicles were a farce. The day after, however, I was a
believer.
Alright, alright. I know that's crazy. How could one test
drive so convincingly change my mind?
Well, it wasn't just the test drive.
My consciousness was open to reevaluating hydrogen fuel
cell vehicles because of a book that I had just finished
reading called ZOOM that focuses on all the reasons for
America to get off oil as soon as possible. While the book
doesn't endorse fuel cell vehicles or the hydrogen highway
as the solution to oil, it does advocate ending our oil
addiction as quickly as possible with great illustrations
of the state of oil and, more important, the dangers of
foreign oil dependence.
Thus, driving GM's Chevy Equinox Fuel Cell vehicle made me
realize that the technology for such vehicles is, largely,
available today. The technology might be expensive still,
but it's not a farce. More important, by the time that any
sort of a hydrogen highway can be implemented, the next
generation of fuel cell vehicles will be more than ready.
But my invitation to test drive the Equinox didn't end
with the drive, it also included what GM called, Electric
Drive University. Ultimately, the Equinox is an electric
drive vehicle, as is the Chevy Volt. In fact, the E Flex
Drive - the platform of the Volt - will also be the
platform for the next generation of GM's fuel cell
vehicles.
Now that's shock-a-rific!
Thus, in theory, the Volt could be either a plug-in
vehicle, or a fuel cell vehicle. This realization - that
there is a strong and significant connection between my
Equinox test drive, the hydrogen highway, and the Chevy
Volt - hooked me on the potential of the hydrogen economy.
Still, the Volt is no sure thing, and that's alright.
Let's say, for example, that David is right. Suppose GM is
a few years ahead of Toyota and Honda on plug-in
hybrid vehicles. Let's say by 2010 GM is only selling
50,000 Volts per year at $50,000 because production is
limited by sophisticated, very expensive technology.
Moreover, while the new Volts might achieve 40 miles on
electricity, anything over a 100 miles drops fuel economy
to 50 mpg - still an an awesome vehicle, but at $50,000,
it's not the easiest sell.
On the other hand, say Toyota develops some kind of
ultracapacitor-battery powered hybrid capable of achieving
80 mpg without the need to plug-in that costs only
$25,000.
Which car would be more successful with consumers?
I think it would easily be the cheaper vehicle. More
interesting, I think Toyota is almost certainly working on
such hybrid
vehicles. And that is what has me so unbalanced. A few
months ago, I thought plug-in hybrids were the perfect
vehicle for America, now I'm not sure what to believe.
And neither does GM, and that's OK. Actually, it's great.
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