Will the plug-in Prius ever outsell the regular Prius?
Why did GM kill the Cadillac Converj, a plug-in based upon the same Voltecs hybrid drive as the upcoming Chevy Volt? Wouldn't making as many range-extended EVs across as many models as possible help bring down costs quicker?
"Sure, each Cadillac Converj would not lose as much money as each Chevy Volt," reports MotorTrend's Todd Lassa. "But it still would lose money, and the best way to limit losses from new technology is to limit volume. "This Cadillac doesn't lose as much money as this Chevy" isn't a business case. Volt is designed to be a "volume" model, eventually produced in the tens of thousands, but it will be years before we see that."
Years before we see tens of thousands of Volts produced per year? The Toyota Prius is already selling in the hundreds of thousands, so the Volt seems at least a decade away from topping the Prius. Then again, the Volt? Unfortunately, we've known about GM's limited production numbers for some time, so I doubt the Volt will be the first plug-in to contend with the Prius.
Besides, the Nissan Leaf has been the real plug-in story these days, and Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn seems to believe the Leaf could quickly challenge the Prius in terms of sales. But how? Most data on battery costs seems to fly in the face of Ghosn's beliefs. Perhaps Nissan is committed to losing a large amount of money on the first million Leafs as a path towards lithium battery manufacturing domination?
Anyway, if Ghosn's predictions are based on reality and not marketing hype, the Leaf could challenge the Prius before the end of this decade it seems. Thus, perhaps a better question is, can a 100 mile EV challenge the Prius, or is greater range and/or a better charging infrastructure required?
Regardless, for my lithium money, I'd have to bet on Toyota producing the first Prius challenging plug-in. Almost independently Toyota developed the supply chains to mass produce NiMH batteries, while owning a significant percent of the manufacturing, and accruing thousands of patents. Certainly, lithium technology will be different, but Toyota's experience in developing and managing battery supply chains and manufacturing seems very advantageous. Moreover, unlike most other automakers, Toyota has already secured massive amounts of lithium.
Likewise, numerous studies suggest small battery pack plug-in hybrids offer the most cost-competitive case for both consumers and automakers until significant battery-powered breakthroughs are achieved. Coincidentally, Toyota has been working on such plug-ins, based directly off the Prius platform, since before either the Volt or the Leaf were even concepts.
Consequently, a plug-in Prius might provide the most cost-effective competition for the conventional Prius, but can such a plug-in, or any other plug-in for that matter, outsell the Prius by 2020?
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