A fantastic car for 5 percent of consumers?
In recent months I've been criticized many times for being too critical of US automakers. Ironically, a year ago or so, I was criticized many times for being too supportive of the Chevy Volt.
So, what's my deal?
Ultimately, I became interested in hybrid cars after 9/11 because I decided that America's foreign oil dependence was beginning to cause far more harm than good for America and the world. Thus, hybrid cars presented a great way to take immediate action today, while investing in the potential of fuel cell vehicles and all other battery-powered vehicles for tomorrow.
For this reason, I was very supportive of the Chevy Volt at first. Yet, as time has passed from the debut of the Volt, I've realized that the Volt has almost become a distraction to my cause.
Don't get me wrong. I believe the Volt will be an exciting vehicle, a worthy vehicle. But as Bob Lutz, the father of the Volt has repeated many times, such a vehicle will only appeal to 5 percent of the population because of upfront costs. So, in the next decade or two, how significant can the Volt really become?
That doesn't mean the Volt is a waste of time, it simply means America needs much more than the Volt if we are serious about ending foreign oil dependence as quickly, and cleanly, as possible.
Sure, over time, such technologies will become more cost-effective for more American auto consumers. Yet, according to almost every expert, analyst and academic study, it's going to take decades, minimally, for such vehicles to become cost-effective and to have any impact on foreign oil dependence.
Consequently, according to the experts, the current American automotive path guarantees several more decades of foreign oil dependence.
Yet, much more than 5 percent of the population is interested in vehicles like the Volt. In fact, according to a plethora of studies, a far majority of Americans are interested in hybrid and EV technologies as a way to fight foreign oil dependence - but only if these solutions don't cost much more than a conventional vehicle.
Thus, I've been very supportive of Toyota's plans to be 30 percent hybrid by 2020, as it suggests cheaper hybrid costs are coming soon. Furthermore, every one of Toyota's hybrids is a great candidate for plug-in conversion as battery technologies mature. That means the legacy effects of these hybrid vehicles can be turned into a positive, versus the negative legacy effects of conventional gas guzzlers upon foreign oil dependency.
Hence, in the short term, hybrids such as the Toyota Prius, might be far more important than range extended EVs, such as the Volt. In the next decade, it will be far easier to sell many more Prius hybrids; and, if the battery technologies powering the Volt and other EVs mature enough, it will be simple and cost-effective to turn these hybrids into plug-in vehicles.
Forget cash for clunkers. Think cash for plug-in conversions.
Sadly, however, even if every automaker were 30 percent hybrid by 2020 and they were producing as many Volt-like EVs, etc. as possible, America would still be terribly dependent upon foreign oil for a long time thereafter. Nonetheless, such a plan would be far superior to where America is heading today.
Inevitably, despite the upcoming launch of the Chevy Volt, as well as Toyota's plans to be 30 percent hybrid by 2020, America is still on the slow train to foreign oil independence. Can this track really be the way to future American greatness?
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