Yesterday, several
newspapers ran articles updating the fact that Toyota
wants to sell 1,000,000 hybrid
vehicles worldwide next decade and that it was
working on 10 new hybrids. Really, this isn't new news.
Toyota has been saying this for a few years, but I guess
people are actually starting to believe them now.
Still, there is incredible hybrid hate in the automotive
world. Critics chime that hybrids aren't as efficient as
EPA numbers. Of course, essentially all cars aren't as
efficient as the EPA suggests - many are actually 35%
less fuel efficient than EPA estimates. Of course these
critics never acknowledge that fact. For an example,
read my post NYTimes
Rips Lexus RX400h hybrid.
These critics act as if hybrid technology's potential
has been tapped out, when it is only just emerging.
Obviously these critics probably thought computers, cell
phones, e-mail, and the Internet were also hype.
Nonetheless, Toyota definitely faces an uphill battle.
Even though gas prices continue to rise, the cost
difference between hybrids and conventional vehicles is
a difficult barrier for the average car buyer to
overcome. That's why the Toyota
Prius has been so successful, it's unique and buyers
can't compare the price to a conventional Prius.
Hybrid vehicles, such as the Ford
Escape hybrid or the Toyota
Highlander hybrid, will always have limited sales
potential, even if it only takes 3 years to recover the
additional costs versus a conventional Escape or
Highlander. Americans just don't have patience or long
term vision.
Ultimately, a couple of those 10 new hybrids must be
unique vehicles, or the price gap must be made
significantly smaller, for Toyota to achieve its goals.
Of course, if gas prices continue to rise, all bets are
off, and forecasts of 25% of the market might turn into
50% of the market.
I wonder, are hybrid critics more content with the Big
3's fuel efficiency developments. HMMM?
For more on hybrid cars and the EPA, read Hybrid
cars and EPA estimates: This is War.
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