During a period of more than 3 years Toyota tested about 150 lithium-powered plug-in Prius hybrids - a fleet still larger than GM's current Chevy Volt fleet - logging more than 1 million real world miles in almost every type of driving condition imaginable. The lithium batteries used proved safe and reliable, but still cost-ineffective.
Next month, Toyota will produce another 350 plug-in hybrids, followed by another 150 early next year, for further testing. This time however, the goal isn't based on safety and reliability. Instead, Toyota's new goal is to provide the most cost-effective plug-in hybrid package based on real world driving needs and conditions.
Over the last few years Toyota has claimed that they would produce plug-in hybrids as soon as the technology was ready, and for Toyota 'ready' means cost-effective in addition to safe and reliable. Coincidentally, Toyota knows a little something about the cost-effectiveness of new technologies.
Today, about 70 - 80 percent of new car customers are interested in purchasing hybrid cars, a segment dominated by Toyota. With such high interest, why is market share still only about 3 percent? According to consumer surveys it all boils down to costs, and consumer surveys on plug-in hybrids tell a similar story.
So, why is Toyota bashed for stating the obvious?
In reality, Toyota is possibly far ahead of GM, or any other automaker, on plug-in vehicles, at least in terms of real world research and development. Nobody knows because Toyota has not been very public about its plug-in R&D. And, since Toyota owns almost all of the technology powering its plug-ins, including the lithium-ion battery, there isn't much potential for leaks, unless intentional.
On the other hand, when GM announced the Volt and its 40 miles of EV range, a fully functional battery pack didn't even exist. The concept vehicle itself had never even been in a wind tunnel.
Ultimately, the Volt's marketing campaign was crafted before the Volt had even been fully conceptualized. Cost-effectiveness was completely unknown, or pure speculation. In fact there is a rumor that when the Volt debuted, Lutz believed the Volt would cost about the same as a conventional Prius, or just a little more. Instead, it's going to cost about twice as much.
Nonetheless, at the time, GM desperately needed the green buzz that the Volt has provided, and I applaud them for drawing a line in the sand on making a vehicle like the Volt a reality. In fact, the Volt is probably the smartest marketing move ever by GM, but it might not be its smartest technological move. It's simply too early to tell.
More important, inevitably, marketing will not drive real world, mass producible plug-in success. It's not about 40 miles of EV range versus 13 miles of EV range, nor is it about plug-in hybrid technology versus range extended EV technology. It's not even about being first to market.
In the end plug-in success will be driven by one simple factor: cost-effectiveness. And I'd bet that neither the first generation plug-in Prius nor the Chevy Volt will achieve that benchmark.
Just because Toyota has been a bit more transparent and pragmatic about that reality doesn't mean that Toyota is, or has been, anti plug.
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