The
reality of plug-in hybrid conversions
Monday,
July 23, 2007
A
Toyota Prius prepped for plug-in conversion
It was great to watch an actual plug-in hybrid conversion
this weekend at Hybridfest in Madison, WI. It was equally
as great to speak with plug-in conversion specialists,
such as Davide Andrea and Ann Colcord of HybridsPlus.
Unfortunately, however, it isn't all great news regarding plug-in
hybrid vehicles.
While Hymotion has
pegged the cost of a hybrid to plug-in hybrid conversion
around $12,000.00, there are some serious questions
regarding the math and engineering of a Hymotion
conversion. Other conversion specialists insist the cost
of a Hymotion conversion is a money-losing venture only
made possible by Hymotion's relationship to A123Systems.
This is probably why Hymotion isn't really interested in
conversions for single consumers.
In addition, some question Hymotion's technique of
combining
two different battery technologies - NiMH and Lithium.
Hymotion keeps the factory installed NiMH battery pack and
adds a separate lithium battery pack - an engineering
approach some question (Whether this is a valid question
has not yet been proven or disproved).
On the other hand, HybridsPlus removes the factory
installed NiMH pack, making a HybridsPlus conversion
vehicle a purely lithium-powered plug-in hybrid. At
today's prices, that pushes a standard HybridsPlus
conversion to $32,000.00 - a price which does not include
the vehicle.
So, how can the price difference be so great?
For now, Hymotion can probably afford to eat some
conversion losses because each conversion is just a
further validation of A123System's lithium technology, and
A123System's lithium technology, not plug-in conversions,
is the future. Hymotion might never, and probably will
never, be profitable, but a giant contract with GM, Ford,
or Toyota, for example, will quickly and swiftly wipe out
all of Hymotion's losses.
Nonetheless, how many lithium battery packs would have to
be produced to make plug-in hybrids more cost effective? A
million? More? Are automakers ready to take such a risk
based upon only such a small number of real world tests?
One plug-in hybrid fire could make an early, large lithium
contract a very poor business decision.
Or, is a breakthrough in lithium-ion chemistry the real
solution?
Inevitably, it appears the reality of plug-in hybrids -
based upon cost-effectiveness and safety- is easily a few
years away from reality, and maybe even as far as the 5 to
10 years claimed by Ford's Alan Mulally. For the next few
years, the best action towards achieving mass-produced
plug-in hybrids is probably buying one of today's
conventional hybrid
vehicles.
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