Lithium
hybrids: Too dangerous, or too expensive?
Wednesday,
October 03, 2007
Is
the race to the first plug-in hybrid just a PR exercise?
When GM signed an agreement with A123Systems to develop
lithium batteries for the Chevy
Volt plug-in hybrid, Bob Lutz claimed the move gave GM
the lead over Toyota to be the first to market with plug-in
hybrids and electric vehicles.
While the GM faithful filled the blogosphere with their
'the Toyota Prius is dead rants', I could only be amused.
Hymotion, owned by A123Systems,
has converted numerous Toyota
Prius hybrids into plug-in hybrids that achieve more
than 100 mpg. So, if GM's lithium battery partner can
convert the Prius into a plug-in hybrid, why can't Toyota?
Or, is something else going on?
And it isn't just A123Systems.
The folks over at HybridsPlus
are also converting Prii into plug-in Prii, but with
batteries from a different battery producer. Not only
that, but Hybrids is using a much more sophisticated
integration package than does Hymotion - creating a
complete lithium hybrid, rather than a half NiMH, half
lithium hybrid. The cost of these plug-in hybrids,
however, is not cheap. In fact, achieving a 100 mpg
plug-in hybrid can easily double the cost of a
conventional Prius.
At HybridFest in Madison, WI I watched Hymotion convert a
Prius into a plug-in Prius, after which I spoke to Davide
Andrea, the CTO of HybridsPlus, about the differences
between their conversions and the ones performed by
Hymotion.
Aside from some technical differences, it was cost that
far and away caught my attention.
Ultimately, Andrea and the team at Hybrids-Plus are
absolutely convinced that A123Systems is subsidizing the
cost of Hymotion's plug-in conversions, as a positioning
tactic. Consequently, the real world cost of a Hymotion
plug-in conversion just hasn't been made public.
And plug-in costs are a big concern.
GM is already considering a separate lease for the lithium
battery pack on the Volt. That, obviously, might be O.K.
for some early adopters, but it is far from a mainstream
option.
Thus, I can only wonder if Toyota isn't gung-ho regarding
plug-in hybrids simply because they are not going to be
cheap in the short term. Furthermore, since the current
Prius is becoming one of the hottest selling cars in
America, why would Toyota want to switch to a more
expensive option? A more expensive hybrid - even a plug-in
hybrid - isn't going to help Toyota sell a 1,000,000
hybrids per year by early next decade.
A smaller Prius that achieves 60 mpg+ in the real world,
priced a few thousand under a conventional Prius, however,
might just be a bigger seller than the Prius itself, and
it will definitely sell better than a $50,000 plug-in
Prius, even if it does achieve 100 mpg.
In the end, GM probably has more to gain and nothing to
lose by striving to beat Toyota to plug-ins, but until an
automaker can sell at least 50,000 - 100,000 plug-in
hybrids per year, no one really has an advantage in this
PR war.
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