The most important vehicle in America?
GreenCarCongress has an interesting summary of two of the latest studies on plug-in hybrid vehicles.
The first, a UC-Davis study "estimates electricity and gasoline use under three recharging scenarios", and amongst its key findings deduces "The majority of gasoline reduction is due to increases in CS (charge-sustaining, i.e., conventional hybrid mode) fuel economy, not in the displacement of gasoline with electricity in CD (charge-depleting, i.e., electric-power) mode."
The second, a UC Berkely study claims plug-in hybrid value has up to now been undervalued. The true value of plug-in hybrids is defined by their ability to provide fuel choice to consumers, or "properly accounting for the uncertain path of future fuel prices and for the PHEV driver’s ability to respond to these prices by choosing the day’s fuel can raise the battery price at which PHEVs may pay for themselves".
Ultimately, both studies seem to suggest, as have many others, that the government's tax credits for plug-in vehicles might actually be counter-productive, as they push automakers to develop the least cost-effective and least consumer-friendly battery-powered vehicles because of the focus on large battery packs.
Collectively, on the other hand, these studies seem to suggest that mass conventional hybrid car adoption is much more feasible than plug-in adoption and, therefore, more effective at reducing gasoline consumption based upon current technologies. For instance, in California - the expected plug-in leader - more than half those in the market for new cars don't even have the option of plugging in. Thus, perhaps the government should attempt to spur conventional hybrid production, but based on lithium-battery technology?
Moreover, if plug-in vehicles are the goal - as a way to also increase the production of conventional hybrid cars via scale - small battery plug-in hybrid vehicles offer the greatest potential because they require less upfront investment while offering consumers the greatest ability to choose the most cost-effective fueling solution at any time.
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