Is
the Chevy Volt "miles ahead" of the Toyota Prius
Wednesday, November 21, 2007
This
Prius by Hybrids-Plus achieves more than 100 mpg, today
I just finished reading David Kiley's BW article, GM's
Plug-In Push, which opens, "General Motors is
developing a plug-in hybrid technology for its Chevy
Volt that is miles ahead of Toyota and Honda."
Really?
I heard the same such sentiment several months ago
regarding GM's hybrid
vehicles, which many have called more advanced and
more sophisticated than Toyota's hybrids such as the Prius.
Perhaps, but still I have asked, what are the costs of
GM's technology, will it be sold in a package that
consumers want at a price they are willing to pay?
While those issues still haven't been tested in the
market, here's my take on GM's dual mode hybrids: They are
irrelevant to a large extent, at least for now. The Volt
and the E Flex Platform are GM's real focus, not dual mode
hybrids.
It's not that GM's Chevy
Tahoe hybrid isn't a great vehicle. It's an awesome
hybrid vehicle for large SUV fans (more on my Tahoe
hybrid test drive), but there is one problem, 50,000
of them as a matter of fact. With a price tag above
$50,000, how can such hybrids be very successful?
And then there is size.
As a guest of GM for several LA Auto Show events, I was
able to eat dinner with GM car czar, Bob Lutz, along with
3 other journalists. During that dinner I asked Mr. Lutz
about small hybrid cars. Essentially, I posed the
question, why not make a small dual mode hybrid around the
size of the Prius just to shut up all the GM critics,
especially the environmental ones?
Because, Lutz told me, the dual mode hybrid powertrain was
designed for large vehicles, particularly full sized SUVs
and trucks. It's just not very scalable to small vehicles.
While I had long suspected this to be the case, I was
still shocked, even though I felt vindicated.
The Toyota Prius is by far the best selling hybrid
vehicle. The Toyota
Camry hybrid is also selling fairly well - better than
all other hybrids combined, minus the Prius. The Toyota
Highlander hybrid, on the other hand, is not selling
so well.
So, GM will sort of challenge the poor selling Highlander,
but not the two best selling hybrid vehicles until the
Chevy Volt?
Now, there is no doubt that Toyota's hybrids were designed
for urban traffic, for short commutes - something that the
next generation of Toyota hybrids will address according
to Toyota. GM's hybrids were designed for large SUV and
truck utility. But there is an even bigger, more important
difference between the two company's hybrids.
Toyota builds its hybrids on the Hybrid Synergy Drive,
largely the same drive that Toyota is also building its
fuel cell vehicles on, which are, coincidentally also
hybrid vehicles. For Toyota, the Prius can evolve and
adapt. The Prius can be a NiMH hybrid, a lithium hybrid, a
diesel hybrid, a hydrogen hybrid, a plug-in hybrid, an
ultracapacitor-lithium hybrid, and a fuel cell hybrid.
GM doesn't have the same plans for its dual mode hybrid
vehicles, instead the Chevy Volt and, more important, the
E Flex Drive, is GM's adaptable platform, which offers the
same variables as the Prius, but in a different way.
Is GM's series hybrid, electric drive orientation better?
Well, both the Hybrid Synergy Drive and the E Flex Drive
are very dependent upon battery technology - it's possibly
the key technology - and Mr. Kiley, in his BW article,
suggests that GM is ahead of Toyota on lithium battery
technology.
I say slow down.
If anything, GM and the Volt are ahead on rumor and
innuendo, nothing more - the same rumor and innuendo that
created the claims that GM's hybrid technology would blow
the Prius away - it won't. For example, there is not one
single Volt, or Volt-like, prototype that is using one of
GM's potential batteries - and all batteries for the Volt
are still a
potential fit for the Volt.
On the other hand, more than a hundred Toyota Prius
hybrids have been converted into fully functional, 100
mpg+ plug-in hybrid vehicles.
Thus, it seems silly to speculate on how the Volt will
blow away the Prius. More important, the Volt might not
even compete against the Prius. Both might appeal to very
different drivers with very different needs.
Still, what's the point of the Volt, or a plug-in Prius?
It's to reduce oil consumption and clean the environment,
right? Thus, GM is striving for the Volt to achieve 40
miles per charge on pure electricity because that is the
distance that around 70 percent of Americans drive every
day. Still, one must ask, will the Volt be using
coal-powered electricity? How much of a gain does that
provide?
Imagine, if you will, that Toyota develops an 80 mpg Prius
that costs $20,000, but doesn't require any plugging in.
On the other hand, let's say that GM successfully launches
the Volt, which does achieve 40 miles on electricity, but
at any drive over 100 miles the Volt only achieves about
50 mpg. More important, the Volt costs $40,000 plus $100
per month for a battery lease.
Which would sell better?
Certainly, the Chevy Volt could and might be built on a
more sophisticated technology than the Prius, but will it
be worth the costs?
Recently, I went shopping for a new computer. At some
point, you pick the technology that best fits your needs
for the best price. Thus, I didn't pick the computer with
the best technology or the most sophisticated technology,
but the one that fit my needs at the cheapest price.
Technology is not the sole driver of automotive success.
Of course, the Volt might cost only $30,000, or it might
achieve 50 miles per charge on pure electricity. Or,
Toyota might also have a wild card up its sleeve. Again,
numerous Toyota Prius hybrid vehicles have been converted
into plug-in hybrid vehicles that achieve more than 100
mpg, some with batteries being made by the same suppliers
as GM's Volt battery suppliers.
Consequently, it just seems very premature to assert that
the Volt is blowing away the competition, when there are
still numerous variables and obstacles that need to be
overcome by both automakers.
While I'm very excited and optimistic for the Chevy Volt,
and I think it will be a huge success for GM, I don't
think it will be Prius-killer. Ultimately, it will be
different strokes for different folks. Moreover, for 40
mile commutes, many consumers might choose cheaper,
smaller all-electric vehicles - something many companies
are working on - for their short commutes, instead of both
the Prius and the Volt.
Ultimately, one vehicle is NOT going to dominate the auto
market of the future, nor is one kind of automotive
technology. Electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids, and fuel
cell vehicles - even bio-fueled vehicles - all have a
place in the revolution of the automobile. While I would
bet that both the Toyota Prius and the Chevy Volt are
major players in the automotive revolution, anything is
still possible.
For instance, after test-driving the Chevy
Equinox fuel cell vehicle a couple of times and seeing
the Honda FCX
Clarity fuel cell vehicle at the LA Auto Show, for
example, I'm beginning to wonder if the automotive
revolution could even skip much of the plug-in hybrid
technology revolution - something the Prius and its hybrid
synergy drive; and the Volt and its e flex platform, are
being designed to accommodate.
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