Hybrid
vehicles: Has GM leapt past Toyota and Honda?
Thursday, February 28, 2008
It's not just
about the Volt?
I received an e-mail yesterday asking whether I thought
that GM had leapt past Toyota and Honda in hybrid
vehicles in the last year, as some believe based upon
GM's dual mode hybrid vehicles and, more importantly, the
ongoing development of the Chevy
Volt.
My initial response was absolutely not, but as I
contemplated this question, I realized that maybe GM had
jumped past everyone in the auto industry. Well, everyone
except Toyota.
Certainly, in terms of Toyota, GM's dual mode hybrid
technology does offer some advantages over Toyota's Hybrid
Synergy Drive, but it also offers some disadvantages.
In terms of advantages, GM's dual mode technology provides
full-sized SUV and truck functionality, such as towing and
payloads. This functionality and capability could be huge
when GM adds the dual mode hybrid powertrain to full-sized
trucks later this year because, at this point, Toyota
cannot compete with GM in truck functionality.
On the other hand, in terms of disadvantages, the dual
mode hybrid powertrain adds more in costs, and many SUV
and truck drivers don't necessarily need dual mode
functionality, such as those that live in urban areas that
don't ever tow anything. But, the real disadvantage of the
dual mode hybrid powertrain, however, is that it doesn't
really scale well in into smaller cars or sedans. The dual
mode powertrain was specifically designed for larger
vehicles and large vehicle functionality.
Since the Toyota
Prius and the Toyota
Camry hybrid are by far the best selling hybrid
vehicles in America, this is an important consideration
and disadvantage.
Currently, to address this problem, GM offers mild
hybrids, such as the Chevy
Malibu hybrid, but really, in terms of hybrid cars, GM
is largely thinking Chevy Volt, and it is the Chevy Volt
that has many believing that GM has surpassed even Toyota
in hybrid technology.
Here, I have to say hold on.
The Chevy Volt is a concept that is still a few years away
from possible reality, and the Volt is based on complex
and, currently, expensive technology. So,
cost-effectiveness is going to be a huge issue.
Furthermore, lithium - a key to both the Volt and to
plug-in hybrids - might make more conventional types of
hybrids, such as the Prius, much more fuel efficient and
much more cost-effective compared to plug-in hybrids.
Consequently, consumers might just prefer this cheaper
option. As most know, predicting the future is far from
science.
Still, if the future is plug-in hybrids, then GM does
appear to have some advantages. Not only is GM developing
the Chevy Volt, but it is also developing dual mode plug-in
hybrid vehicles, such as a plug-in version of the Saturn
Vue hybrid.
Of course, Toyota's current hybrid success cannot be taken
too lightly and Toyota might be just as prepared as GM to
deliver some kind of vehicle, such as the Volt, but not as
willing as GM to discuss such a concept. Likewise, a
plug-in Prius might make far more sense for most urbanites
compared to a Vue plug-in with towing capabilities.
Ultimately, Toyota is still the undisputed hybrid king, by
far. Hybrid sales make that point quite clearly.
Conceptually, GM looks prepared to challenge Toyota in
hybrids - sometime in the future. But concept versus
reality is quite a different monster. Nonetheless, GM has
given fans hope and on paper that hope is founded, but now
it's time to put rubber to the road.
In the end, however, I don't anticipate GM leaping past
Toyota in hybrid technology any time soon, but GM could
certainly put itself in healthy competition with Toyota
for hybrid dominance - the ideas are on paper and the talk
is there.
The question is, therefore, can GM walk the walk?
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