Hybrid
Sales: Proof that plug-in hybrid vehicles have been
over-hyped?
Updated, April 8, 2012
Buzz
killer - Toyota's third generation hybrid
Editor's Note - Since this article was written in 2008, a full year of plug-in sales are in the books, and it looks like plug-ins were over-hyped. Eventually, plug-in sales will pick up, but it's going to take many years. Maybe it's time to focus on what can be done, rather than dreams?
When rumors started hitting the Internet that Toyota's
third generation Hybrid Synergy Drive was going to use
lithium batteries, I was confident the world was on the
verge of a real automotive revolution.
Lithium, I thought, simply provided better economies of
scale than NiHM batteries, which meant better and cheaper
batteries - better and cheaper hybrids.
Today, it seems, there won't be any mass-produced
lithium-powered hybrids until some time after 2010, maybe
even longer.
Regardless, today's NiMH-powered hybrid
cars are still excellent vehicles. Many hybrids, such
as the Toyota
Prius and the Toyota
Camry hybrid, can be much better financial bargains
than conventional vehicles if you keep the cars for at
least 4 to 5 years.
And hybrids have the attention of the American public.
According to a Harris Interactive Study, 83 percent of
Americans are interested in alternative powertrain
vehicles, such as hybrids, yet only a couple of percent of
those interested in hybrids actually by them (more).
Turns out people want more fuel efficient vehicles. They
want cleaner vehicles. They just don't want to pay extra
for such vehicles.
While plug-in hybrids, such as a plug-in Prius or a Chevy
Volt, have inspired lots of interest in the public,
would a significant percentage of Americans actually buy
them, especially if they cost even more than today's
hybrid cars?
Maybe, but it certainly isn't a sure thing based on
today's hybrid sales.
Ultimately, I sometimes wonder if car technology is really
the solution to issues like foreign oil dependency or
global warming. If Americans paid the real cost of fuels
like gasoline and diesel, such as the military and coast
guard costs of securing America's foreign oil, which costs
tax payers tens of billions of dollars every year - not
including war costs - gas would cost a lot more at the
pump. And, if you added in the health care costs
attributed to automotive pollution to those security
costs, gas prices would easily be 2 or 3 times what they
are today.
Such prices would have had a drastic impact on the types
of cars that Americans would have been buying over the
last few decades.
Anyway, while I have great confidence that a company like
GM can and will produce the Chevy Volt, the real question
is, will such vehicles really change anything if they are
priced higher than conventional vehicles?
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