Editor's Note -- Eventually, this article might be completely revised, but I think it provides good historical relevance since it was written in 2006. In 2006, Toyota was mocked for its hybrid vision, yet in March of 2012, Toyota sold almost 40,000 hybrid cars -- more than any other automaker has ever sold in one year. Toyota has helped change the culture of the auto industry. It's not enough, but it's a step.
I was reading an article
this morning, Honda
sees hybrid owners buying fuel cell cars, and it
struck me how Toyota has become the most important
automaker in the world.
It turns out Honda is looking to the drivers of its hybrid
cars to drive Honda Fuel Cell Vehicles.
"Honda has a rough idea of who its first
fuel-cell customers will be, people trading in their
gasoline-electric hybrid cars," states this AP
article.
"We already hear of people saying, 'gee I like my
hybrid but what's next. I want to go beyond
gasoline'," says Steve Ellis, manager of
fuel-cell marketing for American Honda Motor Co.
Yet, Ellis also notes that, "fuel-cell cars will
make up only a fraction of the auto market for two or
more decades."
While it's great that Honda is looking beyond hybrid
vehicles, is the status quo of the world's fleet of
automobiles good enough for the next two or three
decades?
What happens when millions and millions of new drivers
from China and India demand more oil in the next
decade? What happens if Iran cuts oil production to
the West? What happens if 10 years of increased,
severe hurricane activity batters oil refineries in
the Gulf of Mexico? What happens if global warming is
actually much more serious than believed?
Even worse, what happens if the 'hydrogen economy' is
found to result in some unintended consequence that
actually makes gasoline still a better a
solution?
How Green is Green Enough?
Sure Honda is the greenest automaker in the world, but
none of the world's automakers are green enough, and
that's why Toyota is so important.
Toyota's aggressive push into hybrid cars has made the
public realize that much better automobiles - in terms
of fuel economy and pollution - are available now, not
in decades.
Yet, the best thing about hybrids is that hybrid
technology offers much more potential than is
currently offered. For example, hybrid technology
could be added to flex-fuel vehicles, to diesel
vehicles, to bio-diesel vehicles, to hydrogen
vehicles, etc. Moreover, more and more research will
lead to significantly better hybrid batteries.
Consequently, 100 mpg hybrid vehicles could easily be
less than a decade away.
100 mpg vehicles aren't worth striving for along the
way to fuel cell vehicles in today's world? The status
quo is simply good enough for another few decades?
Inevitably, when America experiences sustained gas
prices of more than $3.00 per gallon combined with the
constant threat of gas spikes of more than $5.00 per
gallon, automakers won't - at least those that want to
survive - have any choice but to build as many hybrids
as possible.
Thanks to Toyota, Americans and the world will know,
automakers can do better, much better.