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Friday, June
30, 2006
Responding to some
bloggers this morning I came to the conclusion that U.S.
foreign oil dependency has become, if not the, at least
one of the major defining moments in U.S. history. With
much of American geopolitics being determined by oil, and
one of America's most important job sectors dependent upon
oil, foreign oil dependency has become a tremendous and
dangerous crisis, but a crisis that poses huge
opportunities.
Still, foreign oil dependency will only become an
opportunity if seized upon by the American consumer.
One of the bloggers I responded to today claimed,
"The technology in use on today's vehicle means
nothing to the consumer." I sure hope that's
incorrect, and if it isn't, that sentiment needs to
change.
The blogger was responding to an article in which I
explained my preference for Toyota
hybrids over Honda hybrids . Quite simply, I believe
that Toyota's hybrid technology offers far more upside
than Honda hybrid technology.
Toyota hybrid technology not only serves as an important
building block for fuel cell vehicles, it also offers
superior urban transportation today - in terms of fuel
efficiency and emissions. Additionally, it offers huge
upside in terms of being combined with clean diesel, flex
fuel or hydrogen engines, and with lithium-ion batteries,
a 90
mpg Prius is very likely, as is a 120 mpg+ plug-in
Prius.
This doesn't mean I don't advocate the purchase of a Civic
hybrid, or any of the other Honda hybrids, it just
means that I think Toyota hybrid technology is more
important to the future than Honda hybrid technology.
Consequently, as a consumer, I feel that Toyota should be
rewarded for this investment in the future.
Why? Ultimately, I believe it is only technology, such as hybrid
cars, that can turn America's foreign oil dependency
into an opportunity. Essentially American consumers must
embrace technology as THE solution to oil dependency if
America is to remain the economic powerhouse it is today.
While some clamor for conservation, ethanol, or even
french fry grease - all are just a drop in the oil
dependency bucket. I absolutely believe in conservation,
but most Americans aren't going to conserve enough -
either by choice or necessity - to make enough of a
difference. More important, a huge conservation movement
would destroy the American auto industry and probably the
American economy.
Ethanol, on the other hand, is a great alternative fuel
source, as are many other biofuels. Still, how much energy
will be required to create these other biofuels, how much
water, how many tons of pesticides and fertilizers? How
much of our dwindling, but extremely important top soil
will be lost? Regardless, technology will still be
required to enable ethanol to achieve any serious level of
oil reduction, such as by leading to better ways of
producing cellulosic ethanol.
Nonetheless, if America's fuel economy doesn't improve
greatly, as millions and millions of extra vehicles hit
the road each year, ethanol will only fill the void
produced by America's ever increasing need for even more
fuel. Thus ethanol might not really change anything, other
than making a few extra farmers rich, but let's get back
to technology.
Ironically, the greatest impact of new automotive
technology isn't even the end of foreign oil dependency,
as great as that would be, but rather new economic
potential.
Some 50 years ago, America began developing the Interstate
system, making America the most important automotive
market in the world. Today, China is working on a similar
road system and India won't be far behind. With billions
of new drivers hitting the road over the next few decades,
the need for extremely fuel efficient vehicles will be
absolutely necessary.
In these emerging markets, America's greatest opportunity
is technology. Cheap labor is not going to keep American
automakers competitive throughout the world, but the
greatest automotive technology can.
For decades complacent automakers, a change-is-bad auto
union and poor consumer choices have put America's economy
and National Security at great risk. Sure, some changes
have been made in recent years. For example, the Ford
Escape hybrid is a great hybrid vehicle, and the
upcoming Chevy
Tahoe hybrid will be a much better choice for
Americans than a conventional Tahoe.
Inevitably, however, American automakers must take on the Toyota
Prius. Once before America conceded smaller vehicles
to Japan, and history now speaks for itself on that issue.
To now concede the most fuel efficient hybrid cars to
Japan in the midst of oil shortages, foreign oil
dependency, and pollution is a sure recipe for disaster.
Unfortunately, rather than focusing on fuel efficient
technologies, Detroit is much more focused on ethanol.
Sure E85 can buy Detroit a little time and help America a
little, but it won't help America turn foreign oil
dependence into an opportunity, it will just delay the
inevitable consequences of the foreign oil dependency
crisis.
As consumers we cannot be afraid of technology, instead we
must embrace technology and reward those companies that
utilize technology to help create a better world for the
people, rather than just to create profit. Together,
American consumers can turn the foreign oil dependency
crisis into one of America's greatest opportunities.
posted by Dahcredyns at 10:56
AM
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