|
Updated: April 8, 2012
Editor's Note -- This article was written in 2004 and will be updated soon. For now it serves a historical context. In particularl, hybrids still make up less than 3 percent of sales. We're not mainstream yet.
"When Toyota Motor
President Fujio Cho predicted in June, 2001, that
cumulative sales of the company's hybrid
vehicles would hit 300,000 within four years, many
industry watchers heard hype. After all, Toyota sold
only 15,556 of its first-generation Prius
hybrids in the U.S. that year." |
|
The quote, from a Business
Week article posted on the Internet today by Chester
Dawson, seemed silly just a couple of years ago,
especially to Detroit. Yet, Prius sales are expected to
hit 100,000 in 2005 in the U.S. alone, and Cho will
probably be right, as Dawson states, "But Cho now
looks prescient."
|
Click
Here
for More
Hybrid Car
Info.
|
|
Even worse for Detroit,
gas prices are still increasing. According to AAA Texas,
"the national average for regular unleaded
self-serve gasoline reached more than $2 a gallon this
week", and further stated, "If price increases
continue in the coming days as expected, several Texas
metropolitan areas will likely set new price
records."
And the bad news
doesn't stop there. This year's hurricane season has
significantly damaged U.S. oil refinement capacity. As
America moves into winter, prices could go even higher.
"If we start to
see quite a cold winter in the northern hemisphere, and
particularly in the U.S., that will drive prices in the
short-term," states industry analyst Daniel Hynes
of Anz Bank in Melbourne.
Since hybrids cost
around $3000 more up front, higher gas prices take some
of that price-pain away, especially if filling up your
SUV starts costing $60, $70, or even $80. At current gas
prices, combined with the Clean Vehicle Tax Credit, it
should take less than 5 years to recover your upfront
costs.
Every time gas rises in
price, that recovery time lessens, and in the years
ahead, as Toyota rolls out possibly a 1,000,000 hybrids
in the next few years, hybrids will start matching
conventional cars in price - plus the fuel savings and
tax credits.
What? Did I just say
hybrids will cost less - after gas-savings - than
conventional cars, while reducing foreign
oil-dependency, helping fight terrorism, and reducing
SMOG and global warming pollution emissions?
Yes, I did.
And it doesn't just end
with Toyota's Prius. Already, the growing auto giant is
set to release two hybrid SUVs, the Highlander
Hybrid and the Lexus
RX400h Luxury hybrid, and America's best selling
car, the Camry, is just around the corner.
Then you have Honda,
which already offers the Civic
Hybrid Car, and is releasing it's Accord
Hybrid car in December.
And with Detroit a
couple of generations behind the Japanese, conventional
car pricing might price Detroit right out of American
market-share.
So, the question is no
longer whether hybrids will go mainstream, the question
is, 'Can Detroit survive without going hybrid?'
>>
Blog on this subject.
|
