Toyota's
lithium contradictions and the third generation Prius
Updated:
Tuesday, February 19, 2008
Will
it be lithium powered?
Katsuaki Watanabe, Toyota's
top guy, has been very bullish regarding lithium batteries
and their ability to power Toyota's hybrid
cars. He was even quoted by BusinessWeek
in 2007 confirming that lithium batteries were
ready for Toyota's hybrids.
Shortly thereafter, however, rumors emerged from Japan
claiming that lithium would be delayed, and multiple
Toyota executives have seemed to confirm these rumors.
Back in September, Kazuo Okamoto, Toyota's research and
development chief, for example, claimed that Toyota's
Third Generation Hybrid Synergy drive had not been
delayed, however, Okamoto also made it clear that the third
generation Prius would not utilize lithium.
Likewise, regarding lithium batteries, the AFP
has reported in the past "According to reports, Toyota is concerned
the batteries could get too hot and ignite, and Toyota
executive vice president Masatami Takimoto acknowledged
that the question of security is essential."
Yet, Watanbe told reporters in Frankfurt that he was
confident that lithium could safely be used in hybrid cars
and, more interesting, that no problems with lithium had
delayed Toyota's Third Generation Hybrids.
So, what's the deal?
Having witnessed Hymotion convert a conventional Prius
into a lithium-powered Prius in just a few hours, it seems
the battery used in Toyota's hybrids is largely irrelevant
to the hybrid powertrain, especially if the package sizes
are similar.
Thus, if lithium batteries can be proven safe
in Toyota's mind, it probably won't be that difficult for
Toyota to convert the Prius from one that uses NiMH
batteries to one that uses lithium batteries.
Consequently, I think anything is possible.
Nonetheless, lithium
chemistry is far more volatile and prone to thermodynamic
events. This potential, I'm certain, has made Toyota take
a very cautious position.
More important, Toyota is now in a position to
under-promise and over-deliver, an excellent way to manage
the expectations of a highly anticipated product.
So, will the third
generation use lithium? Probably not at first, if ever.
Although, Toyota is supposed to release a new unique
hybrid in 2009, probably as a 2010 model. Could that new
hybrid use lithium?
We should find out in
2009, when Toyota debuts the new hybrid at NAIAS.
|
