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By 2015, the study claims
that hybrid cars could be 80% of the car market - some
huge numbers.
Since most automakers,
other than Toyota and Honda, won't really get into the
hybrid market until 2007-2008 - by their own predictions
- the numbers seem hopeful, or maybe depressing for
American automakers.
Since the only American
hybrid, the Ford Escape Hybrid SUV, leases its
technology from Toyota's
Prius, American automakers
might not start huge productions of hybrids until they have a
proprietary hybrid powertrain developed.
For example, Ford is
only expecting to sell 20,000 of its Escape Hybrids for
the next couple of years, and it will be at least a
couple of years before any other hybrids are added to
the Ford lineup.
Of course Toyota and
Honda are already positioned to fulfill the needs of
this emerging market - with or without their American
counterparts. Surely, the success of the Toyota Prius
Hybrid Car had to be a shock for the Big 3, and the
release of the Honda Accord Hybrid in December, has to
have Detroit a bit nervous and rattled.
Already Japan is
sinking into European market share, and hurting American
divisions in Europe. GM Europe is posting
huge losses and 30,000 plus layoffs are being
contemplated. Some factories are certain to close.
Is the U.S next?
Probably not, at least
not in the near future. Still, it seems the U.S needs to
make a move, or face more market share decline in
America, as well as the world.
Just following the
trend won't be enough for Detroit. Somehow they have to
commit to dominating the hybrid car market, or they have
to come up with an alternative vision for the future -
that can be sold yesterday (O.K., at least today).
Talking about the
future isn't good enough when your competitors are
already in the future.
>>
Blog on this subject.
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