Did
Chevron stall hybrid and electric vehicles?
Wednesday, February 06, 2008
Does
Chevron make NiMH licensing for hybrids too hard?
Who killed the electric car?
GM did when it sold its stake in NiMH battery patents to
Chevron many conspiracy theorists claim. Are they right?
It certainly seems that if GM had retained its stake in GM
Ovonics Battery Systems, GM might be able to make cheaper hybrid
vehicles, but would they be making more hybrids today?
According to many in the auto industry it was Toyota that
pioneered the needed advances in large-format NiMH
batteries for hybrid vehicles, and that battery still
wasn't really perfected until the second generation Toyota
Prius - long after GM sold its rights to NiMH
technology.
Until the second generation Prius, hybrid vehicles seemed
like a silly science experiment to most consumers and
automakers. However the NiMH and software gains made by
the launch of the second generation Hybrid Synergy Drive,
coupled with 9/11, Katrina and $3.00 gas made Americans
take a second look at hybrids. That second look made the
Prius one of the top 10 best selling cars in America last
year, while forcing every automaker to start taking
hybrids much more seriously.
Yet, would Toyota be making many more hybrid vehicles if
not for the fact that it has to pay royalties to Chevron
to sell NiMH-powered vehicles in America? Maybe. If Toyota
were able to sell its hybrids at a much cheaper price it
could sell more, but are the royalties adding that much
per car?
I don't think so.
So, maybe Toyota has worked out a viable relationship with
Chevron, but what about Ford, Chrysler and GM? Has Chevron
made it hard for these companies?
Ford still doesn't have a fully proprietary hybrid
powertrain, except for a plug-in fuel cell hybrid.
Chrysler and GM, on the other hand, are still putting the
final touches on their dual mode powertrain.
So, other than Toyota, there just hasn't been the
potential for many more hybrids outside of Toyota and
Honda.
Can Chevron be blamed for this reality? I don't think so.
Battery powered cars are not just about the batteries.
Toyota continually talks about software and how software
is increasing the efficiency of its Hybrid Synergy Drive.
But that software isn't just about fuel economy, it's
about managing the battery and maintaining the sweet spot
of the battery's charge in every single driving condition
imaginable. Otherwise, the battery life of most NiMH
batteries might only be a couple of years - that kind of
engineering, programming and software development has
costs.
Moreover, these battery management problems will be even
more difficult for lithium batteries because the
thermodynamics of lithium are far more explosive than
nickel.
Thus, some conspiracists ask, "why are automakers
going forward with lithium?"
Take the Toyota
Camry hybrid, for example. The Camry hybrid achieves
impressive fuel economy, impressive enough that the hybrid
costs of the Camry hybrid will be recovered long before
the vehicle isn't driveable. Yet, most consumers still
won't pay extra up front to save money in the long run.
That's a consumer psychology problem, not a Chevron
problem.
Or, take cameras. I'm kind of a camera freak. If you are
too, then you know how crazy battery life has become for
cameras and video cameras. The other day I bought a 15
hour lithium battery for my camcorder that it is about a
third the size of the 1.5 hour NiHM battery of my first
camcorder.
Likewise, my latest laptop battery gives me more than 6
hours of power, compared to an hour in my first notebook,
yet my current laptop uses significantly more energy.
The whole electronics industry has been transformed by
lithium, and that's why automakers can't bet the future on
NiMH.
Sure NiMH batteries can achieve acceptable, almost
impressive results in battery powered vehicles - both pure
electric and hybrid electric, but at razor thin profit
margins. Ultimately, however, NiMH is just too heavy.
For fans of battery powered vehicles, it's disappointing
that more selection isn't available, that only Toyota is
really doing anything. Yet, even for Toyota, hybrids won't
truly go mainstream until lithium success is achieved - or
we add a gas tax to fight foreign oil dependency.
However, when lithium success is achieved, the auto
industry will forever be transformed.
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