0.5 percent market share for plug-in hybrid vehicles by 2015?

Updated April 8, 2012

Great for media, but how about the real world?

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Editor's Note - Keeping an eye on these predictions over the years. Want to see if they come true.

If it were up to me, I'd cancel the cash for clunkers program and offer an unlimited tax credit, at least through 2015, for any and every vehicle that achieves at least 50 mpg combined. I might even add an additional credit for any vehicle that achieves 100 mpg combined.

Ultimately, I'd bet that would lead to a rush in development of hybrid cars and other plug-in vehicles if the credit were similar to the clunker's program.

Without such a program, I've written that battery powered vehicles are going nowhere fast. For instance, according to JD Power or CSM Worldwide, hybrids and plug-ins will only achieve a marketshare of 3.6 percent by 2015, compared to 1.6 percent in 2009. Plug-in vehicles will achieve a market share of just .5%.

Say JD Power is wrong. Say JD has some hidden agenda. However, thus far, JD has done a pretty good job of predicting hybrid vehicle market share.

Is there too much hype around the battery-powered revolution? If the battery-powered car is our goal, why not be realistic about what it's going to take to get us there?

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Labels: electric cars, Hybrid Vehicles, plug-in hybrid vehicles