Better without the plug?
Depending upon the poll or survey, between 70 and 80 percent of Americans are interested in buying a hybrid car today. Many of them are interested because they are worried about pollution and global warming. Most, however, are interested in hybrid cars because they help reduce foreign oil consumption.
Unfortunately, hybrids are still too expensive, according to these same polls, for most Americans to act upon these various convictions. Most Americans are only willing to pay a little more to 'do the right thing'. Many, perhaps even a majority, are unwilling to pay anything extra for a hybrid, or any other foreign-oil dependency-fighting product.
So, what's the solution?
More expensive plug-in hybrid cars and electric vehicles, of course, at least judging by the actions of today's politicians and US automakers.
Ironically, not nearly as many Americans are interested in plug-in hybrid cars as compared to conventional hybrids. Furthermore, most potential plug-in consumers are just as cost-conscious as are hybrid consumers, especially regarding upfront costs.
Yet, a new study by the National Resource Council indicates that plug-in hybrids will continue to be too expensive for mass adoption for decades - as have most studies on this subject. Even worse, plug-in hybrids will have minimal impact on either foreign oil dependency or CO2 emissions before 2030, especially compared to conventional hybrid cars.
Toyota, and to some extent Honda, have understood this for years. By 2020, Toyota expects 30 percent of its fleet to be conventional hybrid cars, as others try to leap-frog today's hybrids with plug-in versions.
Of course, if every automaker were taking the Toyota path, by 2030 perhaps 40 - or even 50 percent or more - of all vehicles on the road could be hybrid cars - with the same incentives needed to make just a few percent of America's fleet plug-in vehicles by 2030.
Instead of direct Prius-contenders, however, companies like GM will continue to make rap videos about the virtues of the Chevy Volt, even though the Volt will neither help GM achieve profitability, nor will it help America reduce its foreign oil consumption or CO2 emissions for decades.
Of course, the politicians will continue to pay billions just to hear GM rap away reality.
Without question, plug-in hybrid vehicles are an essential technology for automakers, but today's hybrid cars offer significantly more potential for the next few decades - potential that can be plugged in once feasible.
Instead, of 13 million PHEVs and 287 million gas cars on the road by 2030, wouldn't 150 million plug-in conversion-ready conventional hybrids offer a lot more bang for the buck?
Inevitably, America can't rap its way out of foreign oil dependency. Isn't it time to leave the hype, special effects and fantasies in Hollywood? Isn't it time to get real?
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