Do 25,000 Volts change the auto game?
For a long time I've been critical of the government's plug-in tax credits. They are simply too focused on large battery vehicles. While some might counter 'the bigger the battery the better', the plethora of studies demonstrating the cost-ineffectiveness of such vehicles is simply undeniable.
Inevitably, big battery plug-in hybrids, for instance, will not EVER be cost-effective using current battery technologies according to the scientific consensus. Major breakthroughs beyond manufacturing improvements will be required.
And, fortunately, the government is pumping massive amounts of money into developing some sort of battery industry in the US. Yet, again, one must ask, 'Is the government taking the right approach?'
By 2014, according to recent analysis, major consolidation is going to occur in the lithium battery space due to overcapacity that will shrink some 60 major battery makers worldwide down to just 6 or 8 manufacturers. The key to success will be revenues.
Just before GM went into bankruptcy, GM executives told Congress not to factor the Chevy Volt into GM's ability to increase fleet fuel economy to meet the upcoming increase in CAFE. By 2015, according to the execs, GM will probably have only built about 200,000 total Volts, and many of those might be imported out of the country.
Is that the key to revenue success in the battery space by 2014, when consolidation runs rampant?
Today, it seems we're HOPING for a new automotive future, while throwing a lot of money at our hope, but without any concrete evidence or plans to make our hope a reality.
By 2020, Toyota could be producing as many as 3 million hybrid cars - plug-in conversion-ready hybrids - or more per year while producing as many or more plug-in hybrids and EVs as GM.
If American companies are going to compete in battery-powered revenue, don't they have to compete at battery-powered production? And if American automakers are going to compete at battery-powered production, aren't hybrids and small-battery plug-ins, such as the Prius plug-in, critical to success?
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