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The
future of hybrid cars
I was
recently interviewed for an article regarding hybrid
cars and the question posed to me was, "Will the
hybrid powertrain be the dominant powertrain by
2012?"
While I said that it would not, I noted that analysts
currently predicting total hybrid sales achieving just 5%
of the market by 2012, were just as wrong in that
prediction as they were when they predicted the complete
failure of the Toyota
Prius.
Recently the article, Forget
hybrids, America; diesels will provide economy,
performance argues that America should focus on
diesel, not hybrids, especially because Ford is a leading
player.
So now diesel is the answer to America's oil problems?
Please!
According to Ken Miller, an oil industry analyst with
Purvin & Gertz in Houston, "New environmental
rules for diesel will go into effect on Jan. 1 that are
expected to add a few more cents per gallon to the cost of
diesel. The day when diesel was cheaper than gasoline is
probably over." (AutoWeek)
Yet, diesel is the answer?
Others might say that bio-diesel can make diesel vehicles
cheaper to run, but I doubt this to be true if a
significant percentage of Americans begin to drive
bio-diesel. Where will the fuel come from? What if severe
weather causes drought or storm that destroys fuel
crops?
Bio-diesel
can absolutely help end foreign oil dependency, but it
cannot do it alone.
I say build flex-fuel hybrids because doing so could save
America as much as a trillion dollars (more).
There was a time when technology was the strength of
America, yet today, the strength of America seems
controlled by whether oil is cheap or not. Additionally,
many automotive writers, probably the ones who refused to
use a computer for as long as possible, continue to wear
blinders.
How many more conflicts in the Middle East, how much more
evidence of pollution and global warming, how much more
evidence that America is continually losing its
technological stronghold, will it take before America
embraces the future - a future that will be dominated by
technology, not cheap oil?
America has for too long chosen the easy path, a path that
has been enforced by military power and executed with a
complete disregard for the environment. Suddenly, however,
the easy path is neither so easy, nor cost-effective.
While hybrid cars might not dominate the future, hybrid
technology is just an emerging technology that can lead to
100 mpg fuel efficiency within 10 years if automakers
create bio-diesel hybrids, plug-in hybrids, or even
solar-powered plug-in hybrids - while also helping
hydrogen, electric, and fuel cell vehicle development.
Can diesel achieve that in a decade?
The future of the world, especially the automotive world,
will not be driven by cheap oil, but by technology and
that technological advancement needs to begin now. Sure
America can wait, but the longer it waits, the more
technologically obsolete America will become.
Besides, isn't it time America invests in America, rather
than in filthy rich oil companies?
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