I know most people don't hate hybrids, in fact, I'm sure most Americans don't even know such cars exist. That's why it seems so funny that some automotive writers, pundits, and consumers seem to hate hybrids.
John McCormick of the Detroit News writes today in his defense of the Detroit auto industry, "Critics who deride Detroit for missing the boat on hybrid vehicles also miss the point. It's true that certain Japanese automakers have scored a public relations success with their hybrid models, but whether their sales penetration will ever amount to more than a few percent of the market is doubtful, according to respected industry forecasters."
The truth is that there are many respected industry forecasters forecasting a wide-range of scenarios, including predictions of hybrids becoming 30% or more of the market. Everyone knows the future is unpredictable.
Additionally, I don't think any critic believes hybrid cars are THE REASON for Detroit's problems, but an example of the lack of Detroit's technological leadership - decades of declining marketshare predate the spawn of hybrids.
Even GM's Robert Lutz has noted how GM could have taken a small chunk of their advertising budget per year and funded their own hybrids. The sad truth is that GM's R&D investments indicate that GM values marketing more than technology.
In reality, almost every critic has focused on the legacy costs of health care and pension funds as one of the most important problems with Detroit, in addition to an over-dependence upon badge-engineering - the antithesis of technological innovation. Ultimately, it is a known fact that Japan reacts to market conditions much faster than Detroit in production and upgrades.
The only thing that reacts quickly in Detroit is the Union anytime fair concessions are mentioned, or when a Marine with a Bush bumper sticker parks, legally, on a Union lot.
But let's get back to the point.
Recently, Bill Gates told an audience of automotive executives to focus on technology to solve the problems of the automotive world.
Hybrids have pushed automotive technology to another level. Yes, it is very true that other technologies might emerge, but it is also possible that the hybrid powertrain will be the key to fuel cell vehicles - while significantly reducing pollution and foreign-oil dependency TODAY.
Even Mr. McCormick states, "Microsoft founder Bill Gates, in Dearborn last week, was right when he said that technological expertise would be critical to Detroit's future."
While gasoline-electric hybrids might be an interim technology to the automotive future, there is an excellent chance that other hybrid vehicles, such as diesel-electric, hydrogen-electric or fuel cell-electric, might be the hybrids of the future.
Hybrid vehicles are an emergent technology with the potential to make huge gains in efficiency and power compared to gasoline, diesel, or hydrogen engines by themselves.
Sure, hybrid vehicles are a technological gamble, but hybrids are only one battery breakthrough away from instantly making today's gasoline engine technology completely inferior.
That's not that much of gamble, and it is certainly a better gamble and investment than new a line of SUV advertisements.
Laptops and mobile phones were once crude, slow, and offered little battery life. Yet, much of the same technology that is revolutionizing mobile computing and communications, is the same technology that can revolutionize hybrids.
Case in point, the first Toyota Prius does not compare with the current Prius. Huge advancements have already been made in Toyota's Hybrid Synergy Drive in just the last few years, and the next few years will bring many more advancements. In 10 years it is easy to imagine hybrids twice as efficient and twice as powerful as today's hybrids, at cheaper costs - and that's probably a conservative estimate.
Then again, gas will probably drop back down to $1 per gallon as peace in the Middle East erupts into prosperity for the entire world, and no one ever questions the reign of the SUV again!
More hybrid vehicles.
