Fool's Gold: Plug-in hybrid vehicles?

Monday, February 18, 2008

Couldn't lightweight hybrids change the world now?

--> add or read Comments

How realistic are plug-in hybrid vehicles? That depends on who you ask, but there is a great story covering this topic - a topic addressed by the 2008 SAE Hybrid Vehicle Technology Symposium last week - on today's Green Car Congress.

Anyway, here's my take.

First, GM is now probably the biggest advocate of plug-in technology, particularly because of the Chevy Volt. Honda, the world's greenest automaker for the last several decades, on the other hand, is one of the biggest detractors of plug-in technology. That alone should make anyone with an open mind realize the complexities of this debate.

Second, the plug-in pusher, GM, is putting far more energy and resources into flex-fuel than into plug-in hybrid vehicles because plug-in hybrids are a more long term solution according to upper management at GM. For anyone that doesn't believe this, I can provide video evidence validating this point from GM's CEO, Rick Wagoner.

Third, the economics of today's hybrid vehicles do not make sense to most consumers. Most consumers want better fuel economy, but they do not want to pay ANYTHING extra to achieve this better fuel economy. Thus, consumers still care more about cup holders than fuel efficient technology. So, why in the world would anyone believe that consumers will pay even more - far more - than hybrid vehicles for plug-in hybrid vehicles?

Fourth, the thermodynamics of lithium-ion chemistry are not child's play. More important, for a major automaker to succeed with lithium, engineers have to prove beyond all reasonable doubt that a lithium battery pack will never, ever explode. Not once. Not even in 130 degree weather in the Mojave desert, going up a mountain with the AC on full blast. It can NEVER,
EVER happen.

This faith in engineering WILL be expensive to achieve, although it is almost guaranteed to happen. Still, even when it happens it will take years and millions of cars before any economies of scale exist to make such vehicles remotely profitable for automakers.

Yet, we expect automakers to make wide scale plug-in availability happen in just the next few years? Impossible.

Do plug-in hybrids make great sense in theory? Of course. A NiHM powered RAV 4 makes great sense today in theory, but the fact is, even though an electric RAV meets almost every commuter's daily needs, it doesn't fulfill their consumer expectations. It doesn't fulfill their automotive lust.

Today's hybrid technology - on the road, proven technology - coupled with lighter materials, for example, could achieve average, fleet-wide fuel economy of more than 50 mpg in a package that most consumers are comfortable with today. Lightweight Prii, for example, could easily achieve 60 or 70 mpg. Even lightweight dual mode Malibu hybrids or Toyota Camry hybrids could achieve 50 mpg. And with lightweight technology, even gas-guzzlers like the Chevy Tahoe, could be turned into 35 mpg dual mode hybrids.

More important, lightweight materials, while expensive, don't include any dangerous thermodynamics to worry about, and economies of scale could make materials like carbon fiber as economical as economies of scale will make lithium technology.

But the extra costs of these technologies, especially in the short term, would put most automakers out-of-business, at least according to automakers. And, these automakers are probably right.

Still, why do we believe PHEVS will be so much more cost-effective anytime soon?

Certainly, PHEVs are not fool's gold, but they are at least a decade away from having any real impact on America's foreign oil dependency. Even if PHEVs start making an impact in a decade, it will probably take another decade for PHEVs to really make any sort of real dent in foreign oil dependency.

That's 2028, people, and it is insane to think that we can wait that long.

Do we want to do everything possible, as soon as possible, to end foreign oil dependency, or are we going to continue to wait year-after-year, excuse-after-excuse, until we start taking action?

Today, PHEVs, such as the Volt, are an excuse, NOT a solution. Until America starts taking action today, excuses will continue to be just like assholes, everyone will have one: not until PHEVs, not until they are cheaper, not until its a PHEV truck, not until the second generation, not until they extend the warranty. 

Excuses, excuses.

--> add or read Comments

posted by Dahcredyns at 10:59 AM 

More hybrid news

• 2010: Year of the plug-in hybrid vehicle conversion?

• GM joins forces with 30 utilities for Volt

• The Economics of hybrids are taxing

• Batteries to hold back PHEVs and EVs?

• Honda's new hybrid looks like a Prius?

• Tesla's Musk: Plug-in hybrid vehicles suck and why he's wrong

• Zen and the Art of Hypermiling

• Prius: Litmus test for the auto industry

  (More hybrid news)

Hybrid Cars Buying Guide: Which hybrid vehicle is best for you?
If you are not sure which hybrid vehicle best meets your needs, use our Buyer's Guide (more)

--> Also see, All hybrid cars save money

• Is the green movement a zealot-driven jihad?
• Peugeot changes hybrid course to luxury
• OEMtek: Convert your Prius into a plug-in Prius
• Prius shortage: Another kink in Toyota's hybrid ar...
• Prius still the greenest hybrid
• Do plug-ins prove that GM has changed?
• Fool's Gold: PHEVs?
• Cupholders: Proof America needs a gas tax?
• Could the Volt be even bigger in Europe?
• Hybrid legends: New batteries every few years

(more Hybrid Car blog stories)

--More polls