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Hybrids
a tough sell?
Monday,
March 12, 2007
Sluggish
sales growth or normal adoption cycle?
Last Friday I read BW's Why
hybrids are such a hard sell, and I thought it was a
worthless piece. How can one discuss an emerging
technology, such as hybrid technology, without even
addressing the normal evolution of emerging technologies?
Surprise, surprise, BW lets readers know, hybrid
cars aren't dominating the world of automotive sales
mostly because of their price. Unbelievable!
Man, back in the 80's I wanted a Commodore 64 quite badly,
but my parent's said it was too expensive. Then I wanted
an Apple, and I heard the same excuse. Finally, more than
a decade later I bought my first PC - even though I
thought it was too expensive, but I called it an
investment.
Yet today, a good TV costs much more than a desktop PC
that has far more computing power than the entire Apollo
moon mission. But that's the life of an emerging
technology.
Just a few years ago notebook computers were also too
expensive, now it seems every college student has one.
Even cheaper technologies, such as cell phones, took at
least a decade to be accepted by anyone other than early
adopters. But again that is simply the normal kind of
adoption cycle one expects from emerging technologies.
So, aren't hybrid vehicles simply following the same
emerging technology patterns?
Let's get real for a second - most automakers don't even
have one hybrid vehicle on the road yet, yet somehow they
are already supposed to be more mainstream? Besides, even
if consumers were ready to accept hybrids as mainstream
products, there simply aren't enough hybrid parts to make
them mainstream.
Hybrid cars, plug-in
hybrid cars and electric vehicles are the future and
they could be just one battery breakthrough away from
mainstream status.
Today, however, hybrids don't make economic sense for
everyone, unless the environment is your primary concern.
And, even if they do make economic sense, hybrid-savings
require long-term ownership. Unfortunately, as credit card
debt and reverse amortization of mortgage loans
demonstrate, Americans just don't like to think long term.
So, why should we expect Americans to think differently
about foreign oil dependency, global warming, fuel economy
and hybrid cars?
To think that hybrids should already be more mainstream
defies the laws of technology, economics and, quite
frankly, common sense. Hybrid vehicles, at least as far as
Toyota is concerned, are right on schedule - maybe even
ahead of schedule considering the success of the Prius.
posted
by Dahcredyns at
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