Over the weekend
I've been contemplating the article, Despite
car show hype, hybrids, diesels will remain
marginal.
Not only does the article dismiss hybrid cars, diesels and small autos, but even fuel cell vehicles, which is contrary to the typical hybrid critic. Many critics call hybrids an interim step to fuel cells - a distraction if you will - but they do see a changing market. While I disagree, seeing hybrids as an essential step toward fuel cell hybrid vehicles, that's not the point.
Mr. Winton, the author of the article, seems to think nothing will change and that America will forever be dominated by the size of the motor, not fuel efficiency. Now Mr.Winton does note that gas prices have to remain at $2.00 per gallon for his future to take place.
I say the days of $2.00 gas are long over, which immediately calls into question the entire logic of Mr. Winton.
This year, $3.00+ gasoline will become commonplace in many parts of the U.S. for an extended period of time - possibly forever - and the possibility of spikes as high as $4.00 or $5.00 are almost a certainty. This alone could significantly affect demand for hybrid vehicles and other alternative fuels, etc.
With significant hurricane activity expected the next several years, combined with limited oil refinery capacity and ever-increasing world demand, higher gasoline prices are inevitable for America.
But that isn't the whole story.
Environmental concerns and foreign oil dependency could also push many more Americans to completely rethink their vehicles and the relationship their vehicle has to world politics. Still, that isn't even the whole story.
I'm a Gen-X'er and I've grown up around computers. The way computer technology has advanced and become 'dirt' cheap in the last 20 years is truly mind-bending.
Well, hybrid technology is largely dependent upon the very same computer technology.
Hybrids will become cheaper; however, they will never match the cost of conventional vehicles. That is probably a fact. Nonetheless, as hybrid technology becomes cheaper, it will also become significantly more powerful.
This means that hybrids will not only offer significantly more fuel efficiency than their conventional counterparts in the next generations - more easily justifying the cost difference - but they will offer far more speed and power at the same time. That is the nature of computer technology.
Mr. Winton can continue to write about the marginality of hybrid cars on his typewriter, but hybrids, just as personal computers 20 years ago, are simply a young, barely-tapped, emerging technology. In 10 years hybrid technology will evolve significantly. Gasoline engine technology; on the other hand, will have changed about as much as, well, typewriter technology in the last 20 years.
Not only does the article dismiss hybrid cars, diesels and small autos, but even fuel cell vehicles, which is contrary to the typical hybrid critic. Many critics call hybrids an interim step to fuel cells - a distraction if you will - but they do see a changing market. While I disagree, seeing hybrids as an essential step toward fuel cell hybrid vehicles, that's not the point.
Mr. Winton, the author of the article, seems to think nothing will change and that America will forever be dominated by the size of the motor, not fuel efficiency. Now Mr.Winton does note that gas prices have to remain at $2.00 per gallon for his future to take place.
I say the days of $2.00 gas are long over, which immediately calls into question the entire logic of Mr. Winton.
This year, $3.00+ gasoline will become commonplace in many parts of the U.S. for an extended period of time - possibly forever - and the possibility of spikes as high as $4.00 or $5.00 are almost a certainty. This alone could significantly affect demand for hybrid vehicles and other alternative fuels, etc.
With significant hurricane activity expected the next several years, combined with limited oil refinery capacity and ever-increasing world demand, higher gasoline prices are inevitable for America.
But that isn't the whole story.
Environmental concerns and foreign oil dependency could also push many more Americans to completely rethink their vehicles and the relationship their vehicle has to world politics. Still, that isn't even the whole story.
I'm a Gen-X'er and I've grown up around computers. The way computer technology has advanced and become 'dirt' cheap in the last 20 years is truly mind-bending.
Well, hybrid technology is largely dependent upon the very same computer technology.
Hybrids will become cheaper; however, they will never match the cost of conventional vehicles. That is probably a fact. Nonetheless, as hybrid technology becomes cheaper, it will also become significantly more powerful.
This means that hybrids will not only offer significantly more fuel efficiency than their conventional counterparts in the next generations - more easily justifying the cost difference - but they will offer far more speed and power at the same time. That is the nature of computer technology.
Mr. Winton can continue to write about the marginality of hybrid cars on his typewriter, but hybrids, just as personal computers 20 years ago, are simply a young, barely-tapped, emerging technology. In 10 years hybrid technology will evolve significantly. Gasoline engine technology; on the other hand, will have changed about as much as, well, typewriter technology in the last 20 years.
