|
Re:
Polk's hybrid vehicle adoption study
R.L. Polk
and Co. is set to release its new hybrid vehicle adoption study,
which doesn't provide too many surprising details. Most
notably "97 percent of respondents recognize hybrid
vehicle terminology","78 percent of respondents
would consider buying a hybrid vehicle", but "61
percent indicate they are concerned with price".
Yesterday, Ronald Jones of MSNBC asked, Is
a hybrid car really good for your wallet? Ultimately,
Mr. Jones found it really depends, but in many cases, no.
While the Toyota
Prius is the most cost-effective hybrid and many
hybrids are cost-effective - or can be - over the long
term, most hybrid
cars are not really going to save you money.
Of course, hybrids can be a edge against further increases
in the price of oil and gasoline. Additionally, if
congestion, or stop-and-go traffic, is a regular part of
your commute - as it is for many millions of Americans -
hybrids become much more cost effective.
Moreover, Mr. Jones bases much of his cost effectiveness
on Edmunds.com.
I've written many times that the Edmunds study wasn't well
done. In particular, it assumes that most hybrid drivers
will do some 75 percent of their driving on the open
highway. I live in Los Angeles and like many drivers in
Chicago, New York, Philadelphia, San Francisco, etc, the
far majority of my driving is done in congestion - the
ideal conditions to achieve a hybrid's best fuel
efficiency.
According to transportation studies by the government and
academics, congestion is getting far worse year after
year, and not in just large cities, but even in suburban
and rural areas. In these conditions, most conventional
vehicles can fall short of their EPA fuel efficiency
ratings by as much as 35 percent, while causing obscene
amounts of pollution.
Consequently, for many, hybrid vehicles are about
something much greater than just saving money. They are
about saving the environment and ending foreign oil
dependency. While foreign oil dependency isn't accurately
accounted for in the price of oil, there is no doubt that
America's geo-political oil interests have had a
significant impact upon the national security of America.
Thus, there are plenty of people willing to buy the
current supply of hybrids, which will lead to better and
cheaper hybrid technology, and hybrids offer great
potential. Recently, an article
noted that experimental hybrids can achieve 250 mpg.
Why are waiting for fuel cells if current technology has
the ability to accomplish so much, for just a fraction of
the cost of fuel cells and a new energy infrastructure?
The fact that so many people are so aware of hybrid
vehicles and that so many are willing to buy them
indicates the vast growth potential of hybrids. For such a
new technology, still just an emerging technology, the
future looks very bright.
Further, the technology behind hybrids is very much like
the technology behind computers. Ten years ago most
Americans were interested in buying a computer, but
thought they were still too expensive. Today, many
Americans own multiple computers.
I expect the same thing will happen to hybrids. Hybrid
vehicles might not always be the cheapest technology, but
they will be the best technology - the best technology
that continually gets better and cheaper.
--> Blog/Comment
on this topic
|
