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Tuesday,
January 11, 2006
Boy, oh,
boy some critics of hybrid
cars couldn't wait to talk about how the new EPA
estimates for fuel economy might affect hybrids.
The Detroit News just couldn't contain themselves in the
article, Fuel
test overhaul may dent hybrids, as you can tell from
the title.
No, No, Detroit News, tell me how you really feel.
Anyway, the article states, "The Environmental
Protection Agency announced an overhaul in the way it
estimates fuel economy Tuesday, a move that could shake up
showroom transactions, especially in the booming hybrid
segment."
Under the new methods, the city fuel mileage estimates for
most vehicles would drop 10 to 20 percent from today's
estimates, depending on the vehicle. The highway mileage
estimates would generally drop 5 percent to 15 percent,
the EPA has stated.
The DetroitNews and others have noted that for hybrid
vehicles; however, city driving numbers will drop 20 to 30
percent.
What I find most amusing about this whole discussion is
how much hybrid critics like to discuss the shortcomings
of hybrids. Critics constantly note that hybrids are only
1% of total sales and will never achieve more than 5% of
U.S sales, therefore, they are insignificant.
Fine, if that's your belief, why do hybrid critics care so
much about hybrids?
But let's get back to the EPA numbers.
When Consumer Reports did their fuel economy tests last
year, it found that the biggest offenders in terms of real
world city mileage were conventional vehicles, in contrast
to the EPA. In fact, 9 out the 10 of the biggest offenders
WERE NOT hybrids and those vehicles missed their EPA
estimates by 35% on average. The worst offender, the Jeep
Liberty diesel, missed its EPA estimates by 50%!
Another offender, according to CR, the Chrysler 300C, is
supposed to achieve 17 mpg in the city, but actually only
achieved 10 mpg. Yet, the DetroitNews and other hybrid
critics are complaining about hybrids? In my mind, 10 mpg
is simply unacceptable in today's world and that should be
the real issue regarding American fuel economy.
Yet, the EPA numbers don't demonstrate CR's findings. Why?
While I don't know the answer, my guess is that because
other cars don't fare as poorly, this raises the overall
average for all vehicles in a particular class. In any
regard, it demonstrates that the new EPA numbers are still
very unreliable.
Also since these new numbers could affect the way CAFE is
determined, one has to wonder if some politics aren't
involved in the mix. If it were demonstrated that
conventional vehicles were vastly less fuel efficient than
the EPA has stated, then CAFE might have to be refigured.
Such a move would probably immediately bankrupt both Ford
and GM.
Since there aren't many hybrids available, on the other
hand, one hybrid with poor city mileage can skew the whole
hybrid fleet. Honda hybrids, for example, haven't
performed as well in the city as Toyota hybrids, are the
results of these hybrids averaged? If so, is that fair?
Ultimately, the testing methods of the EPA are still in
question. Ironically, "Officials at the Alliance for
Automobile Manufacturers, the auto industry's Washington
lobbying group, cautioned that real-world mileage still
varies from driver to driver."
Do hybrids save money.
OK, let's say the Toyota
Prius hybrid car only achieves 45 mpg in the city. CR
found that the Ford Fusion only achieves 17 mpg in the
city. While the new EPA estimates favor the fusion, the
Prius is still THREE times more fuel efficient than the
Fusion in the city.
Now, if you drive on the highway all the time and never
drive in congestion, the Prius won't offer near the
savings, but it will still offer significantly better fuel
economy than the Fusion. On the other hand, if you live in
any major urban area in the U.S., the Prius could save you
around $1000.00 per year compared to similarly sized
conventional vehicles. That makes the Prius a pretty
awesome deal.
Perhaps you're somewhere in the middle, so in 5 years
you've only saved $2500. That at least covers the base
MSRP price difference between the Prius and the Fusion.
Keep the Prius a couple more years and you've done well,
and if gas prices spike in the next 7 years, then you've
done really well.
With the situation in Iran brewing, spikes in gasoline
prices are becoming almost inevitable. The real question
regarding gas costs isn't will gasoline prices go higher,
but how much higher will gasoline prices go?
In the end, hybrid vehicle buyers, not hybrid critics,
will have the last laugh, despite the EPA's new numbers.
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