Is Ford's Mercury Mariner Hybrid Push Just P.R.?

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February 09, 2005

Is Ford's Early Release of Mercury Mariner Hybrid a PR move?

First, I applaud Ford for being the first American automaker with not only the world's first hybrid SUV, but - soon - the first American automaker with two hybrid vehicles.

Second, the fact that the Mercury Mariner hybrid will hit showrooms in October, at least a year earlier than expected, is a very exciting announcement for hybrid consumers.

Third, I embrace Ford's commitment to hybrid cars. Ford is planning on releasing the Focus and the Milan as hybrids in the next couple of years, unlike GM which has kept its hybrid focus - if you can call it that - only upon large SUVs and trucks.

Nonetheless, why the rush for the Mariner?

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Ford has claimed that Escape hybrid production will be limited in 2005 because of a hybrid battery component shortage. If that is true, why not just produce more Escapes, rather than two limited-supply vehicles?

Or is supply that limited?

In the past Ford has stated that it had secured enough hybrid battery packs for 20,000 hybrids. The last sales numbers that I've seen show that Ford is selling a little more than 1,000 hybrid Escapes per month.

Is the Mercury Mariner hybrid destined to pick up that surplus while building buzz around Ford's hybrid efforts? If so, why?

Toyota would be my guess.

Already Toyota has received downpayments on almost 11,000 units of its first hybrid SUV, the Lexus RX400h. Additionally, there are about another 50,000 interested buyers, and if Toyota can produce enough Lexus hybrid SUVs, the Lexus model alone will outsell the Escape hybrid.

But it doesn't end there.

Just after the Lexus hybrid hits the showroom, the Toyota Highlander hybrid will follow, and interest in that vehicle is as phenomenal as is interest in the Lexus, maybe even greater.

So, Toyota will only be limited by its production capabilities. Without doubt, Toyota can easily move 100,000 hybrid SUVs this year. Combined with the 100,000 Prius hybrids that Toyota has committed to releasing this year, Toyota could easily sell over 200,000 hybrids.

So Ford has to feel very pressured.

Currently, the Honda Accord hybrid is outselling the Ford Escape hybrid, and between the Accord hybrid, the Civic hybrid, and Toyota's Prius, Ford will have a hard time competing - at least in the short term - with these hybrid cars.

The hybrid SUV and truck market is really American automakers best opportunity to grab hybrid marketshare. With GM already eating its foot on hybrid predictions, Ford is a bit in the driver's seat. Unfortunately, Toyota's momentum and the fact that Ford hybrids include licensed Hybrid Synergy Drive technology from Toyota has to be a little unsettling for Ford executives.

Of course not as unsettling as it must be for GM, which is probably two years from entering the hybrid market. Such a head start for Toyota might make its brand almost synonymous with hybrids, much like the Kleenex of tissue.

American automakers should be afraid, be very afraid.

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