Updated:, October, 2009
2010:
The end of the hybrid vehicle hoax
So, a few years ago Hyundai
claimed that some time around 2010 the hybrid vehicle will
begin to become the standard powertrain for automobiles.
Yet, Hyundai has yet to offer a hybrid vehicle in the US. Of course, that will soon change when the Hyundai Sonata hybrid goes on sale in the US sometime next year. So, Hyundai could be right on with its predictions.
Why Hyundai? Lithium polymer batteries. Still, Hyundai needs to put a little rubber to the road.
GM has also claimed the future
is electric, but like Hyundai, the electric future of both companies
is dependant upon
lithium-ion batteries that have not yet been
reliably and cost-effectively mass-produced for
automobiles.
As hybrid electrics offer greater
range than purely electric vehicles, one must assume - as
GM has also indicated - that any electric future also means
many more hybrid
vehicles, especially when the costs of of hybrids are
so much cheaper than pure electric vehicles.
Besides, a full hybrid powertrain generates
electricity, so why wouldn't you utilize that capability?
And, down the road, these hybrids can be converted into
plug-in hybrids.
Nissan, another hybrid naysayer, is now pursuing a joint
venture to develop
lithium-ion batteries for their new line of hybrids
set to launch around 2010.
Why?
Some time ago, Roland Jones of MSNBC asked if hybrid vehicles
were losing their appeal.
I
say NO!
However, if Mr. Jones is correct, why
would Nissan pursue such a venture if hybrids are already
over? Certainly Nissan seems more pent on pure electric
vehicles, but Nissan's indecision will be Toyota, Honda,
and Hyundai's gain.
Even if Nissan can sell 100,000 Nissan Leafs per year, there will still be a big market for conventional hybrids.
In fact, by 2020, Toyota expects that 30 percent of its vehicles sales will be hybrid.
So, is 2010 the end of the hybrid hoax?
Obviously. It's very apparent that hybrids are here to stay, especially considering that plug-in hybrids haven't yet even emerged.
Still, he truth is, hybrid vehicles are expensive and they are
not ready for the masses - not yet, and not in 2020.
If they were, Toyota
would offer every model they sell as a hybrid option. Even
Toyota, the hybrid leader, hasn't been able to find
enough hybrid parts to produce enough hybrid vehicles to
meet demand. In Japan the wait for a third generation Prius can be as long as 7 months. (Of course, imagine if Toyota still
qualified for the full hybrid
tax credit, they might not meet demand for years).
Inevitably, hybrids are here to stay, but they are still an emerging technology. As
of today, hybrids don't make financial sense for
automakers, except for Toyota. But, if the future is $3.00+ gas, then eventually, hybrids will make sense for all automakers.
But how will hybrid costs come down?
Sure, despite the fact that survey after survey suggests that most auto consumers are interested in hybrids, most aren't buying. Hybrids are still too expensive. How will costs come down enough?
Years ago, when computers were an emerging technology -
even as the Commodore 64 hit the market - most consumers
simply couldn't afford one. Now most consumers can. In
fact, most consumers can now afford incredibly powerful
laptop computers harnessing the power of the Internet
wherever they go.
Yet, just a decade ago, this seemed very
unlikely.
Less than ten years ago, the majority of people didn't even
use cell phones, now it seems everyone has at least one.
Technology advances, and the more it advances, the faster
it advances. Yes, it takes time for emerging
technologies to develop. It takes economies of scale to
bring prices down far enough so that consumers can afford
the new technology and that corporations can profit from
the new technologies.
Ironically, however, the same lithium technology driving
the computer and cell phone explosion will probably also
drive the hybrid vehicle explosion.
We've come a long way
If not for 9/11, a second War in Iraq, Hurricane Katrina,
massive global warming attention and $3.00 gas, hybrid
vehicles wouldn't even been on the radar of most consumers
today. Yet, had these events not happened, Toyota would
still be developing hybrids.
Why?
Why would Toyota waste, minimally, 100's of millions of
dollars on a technology that had no chance to succeed? Why
did Toyota continue to develop hybrid technology as other
automakers called them foolish? Is Toyota really that
stupid? Is that what pushed Toyota from complete obscurity
to possibly the world's biggest, most profitable automaker
in just a few decades?
By 2010, as battery technology advances, hybrid vehicles
will be at least twice as efficient as today, yet hybrid
parts will be - relative to inflation - cheaper than
today. Those kinds of economics will make crystal clear
sense to consumers. Additionally, plug-in
hybrid technology might offer not just the ability to
end foreign oil dependency, but the ability to end oil
dependency for most Americans, except for those driving
very long distances.
Around 2010, hybrid vehicles will begin changing
everything - without fuel cells, without hydrogen, even
without ethanol. Of course, hybrids can also help develop
fuel cells and alternative fuels, such as hydrogen or
ethanol.
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