100
mpg Prius versus the Volt Electric: The Great War of 2010
Wednesday,
January 17, 2007
Is
the Volt a Prius killer? Will GM's plug-in hybrid leave
Toyota's hybrids behind?
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The Chevy
Volt electric plug-in hybrid is an amazing vehicle, an
amazing concept
vehicle, but the Toyota
Prius is an amazing production
vehicle. Still, if GM were able to produce the Volt, would
it be a Prius killer?
If today's Prius faced tomorrow's Volt, of course the Volt
would electrocute the Prius, however, tomorrow's Volt will
face tomorrow's Prius. So what do we know about these
hybrids of the future?
According to GM the Volt electric could recharge on
electricity every night for 6 hours and provide 40 miles
of pure electric fuel. At 60 miles per day and with the
assistance of a conventional fuel, the Volt could achieve
up to 150 mpg. After 60 miles, the fuel efficiency
continually drops to about 50 mpg until it reaches its end
range of around 600 miles.
Since the majority of Americans drive 60 miles per day or
less, the Volt offers extreme fuel economy for the bulk of
America's commuting needs.
On the other hand, numerous reports have leaked from
unconfirmed Toyota sources that indicate that Toyota is
now working on a 100 mpg+ Prius. This isn't a plug-in
hybrid; this is a conventional Prius using next
generation hybrid technology, such as lithium-ion
batteries (more on third
generation Prius).
So, how is Toyota achieving 100 mpg without plug-in
technology? I have no idea, but if the report is true,
this breakthrough is nothing short of revolutionary, and
it's possibly occurring right now.
One must then ask, could Toyota add a plug-in option?
Would a plug-in option push the fuel economy of this next
generation Prius far beyond 100 mpg - at least in terms of
a daily commute? At a solid 100 mpg, would a plug-in
option even be necessary?
Inevitably, there are too many details and possibilities
that still have to be resolved regarding these two
vehicles before this question of 'prius killer' can be
answered, even asked. Moreover, it is possible that the
Volt might never be a production vehicle. At NAIAS, Bob
Lutz admitted a 10 percent chance that battery technology
will never achieve the ability to fulfill the needs of the
Volt.
Other critics have even called the Volt a mere publicity
stunt. After several discussions with a number of GM execs
at NAIAS - including Lutz - it seemed obvious to me that
the Volt is far from a publicity stunt.
My only concern with GM and the Volt is the question of
whether GM is moving fast enough towards this technology.
Disappointingly, GM has still not sold one full hybrid
vehicle in the U.S. thus far, yet the Yukon hybrid looks
ready to go. So, what's the hold up?
Why care about the Yukon? While the dual mode hybrid
powertrain of the Yukon has little to do with the Volt, it
still helps push the evolution in technology needed for
the Volt. GM's first scheduled plug-in hybrid will utilize
the dual mode hybrid powertrain, not the E Flex
Drive.
Nevertheless, GM's first plug-in hybrids will help develop
the batteries required for the Volt and its E Flex Drive.
Hence the more hybrids GM sells, the easier the ramp up to
the Volt.
Ultimately, if GM is absolutely serious about the Volt and
the E Flex Drive, then I believe GM can challenge the
Prius and Toyota's Hybrid Synergy Drive. Will the Volt be
a Prius killer though?
I doubt it, but it's far too early to tell how the match
up between the Volt and Toyota's next generation hybrid
technology will compare. Ultimately, it seems the Volt and
the Prius, the E Flex Drive and the Hybrid Synergy Drive,
will be two similar, but different skins of the same
advanced technology onion (More
on the E Flex Drive versus Hybrid Synergy Drive).
Consequently, if the Volt and the 100 mpg Prius can meet
in 2010, I don't think either will kill the other - there
will be plenty of room and demand for both vehicles. More
important, if the 100 mpg Prius is already being tested,
GM better make the Volt happen as fast as possible.
The Volt versus the Prius. That's the war the world would
love to have come true.
posted
by Dahcredyns at
|
Toyota isn't doing plug-ins because of the battery life issue. All of the sudden, the FUD we hear today about how you have to replace the batteries every few years would actually be true.
Without revolutionary, not evolutionary, battery improvements; plug-ins aren't coming to the consumer market. Period. You'd need a battery about ten times the weight of the one in the Prius, given current technology, to have the plug-in capacity and still maintain the 30-70% charge band.
the Volt looks and sounds amazing. Hard to beat the Prius as a solidified urban status symbol. I recently posted a blog regarding transportation in LA and the trendy-ness of the Toyota Prius. check it out! ps. i love your blog
Do you consider lithium ion batteries to be a 'revolutionary' improvement ? They are being tested extensively, and it looks like one of the new electrode solutions will be the home run we need. A123Systems, Sapphire, I've heard of about a dozen companies all with 'good enough' technologies for auto batteries. They are just working on discharge power, charging speeds, and total charging cycles. The chemistries and module designs are being constantly improved and tested. Tesla (company) already has a working car based on the older lithium ion battery chemistries, and engineered the modules to compensate.
Give it a few more years, the tweaking and testing will pay off, and the newest lithium ion batteries will give us a truly impressive next generation of hybrids (2010 at the latest).
And the newest ultra capacitors will be icing on the cake, allowing extremely efficient fast recovery of braking energy.
The results might be revolutionary, but the engineering is definitely incremental evolution. It is coming.
12:44 PM
Robert-
Thanks for the post.
You reminded me of just how revolutionary I believe is lithium. Sure it's going to be incremental, but even the first step will be phenomenal compared to conventional vehicles. Even just a 25 percent increase in Hybrid Synergy Drive fuel economy at the same cost - or even less - is very significant.
By just the second generation of lithium hybrids, the conventional vehicle might be a dead-vehicle driving. The internal combustion engine might be a dead-engine guzzling.
Imagine selling 100,000 lithium powered Prii. Suddenly, lithium might be cost-effective.
Imagine how that not only benefits hybrid technology, but plug-in hybrid technology and electric vehicle technology – not to mention alternative energies, such as solar and wind power.
That's revolutionary.
Hopefully, we'll use this power to end foreign oil dependency, rather than just creating bigger and more powerful energy consuming vehicles.
Fifty years from now history and economics classes might not look back upon this age as the Internet or Computer Revolution, but rather they will look back upon how computers and the Internet were the beginning of the Lithium Revolution.
6:09 PM