100
mpg Prius versus the Volt Electric: The Great War of 2010
Updated:
April 16, 2009
Is
the Volt a Prius killer? Will GM's plug-in hybrid leave
Toyota's hybrids behind?
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The Chevy
Volt electric plug-in hybrid is an amazing vehicle, an
amazing concept
vehicle that is still more than a year and half from
hitting the road in very limited numbers.
The Toyota
Prius is an amazing production
vehicle that has achieved sales of more than 1 million
units.
Still, when
GM finally produces the Volt, will
it be a Prius killer?
If today's Prius faced tomorrow's Volt, of course the Volt
would electrocute the Prius, however, tomorrow's Volt will
face tomorrow's Prius. Moreover, costs and values will
ultimately determine any cars success.
According to GM the Volt will be able recharge its
batteries in about 6 hours and provide 40 miles
of pure electric fuel.
At 60 miles per day and with the
assistance of a conventional fuel, the Volt could achieve
up to 150 mpg.
After 60 miles, the fuel efficiency
continually drops to about 50 mpg until it reaches its end
range of around 600 miles.
Since the majority of Americans drive 60 miles per day or
less, the Volt offers extreme fuel economy for the bulk of
America's commuting needs. Of course, at $40,000, the Volt
isn't cheap and gas prices would have to increase
dramatically to recover the extra battery costs.
On the other hand, numerous reports have leaked from
unconfirmed Toyota sources that indicate that Toyota is
now working on a 100 mpg+ plug-in Prius. This plug-in
hybrid, like the Volt, will also use lithium-ion
batteries. However, it will not use as many batteries as
the Volt, which will bring down its price (more on third
generation Prius).
Recent studies have indicated that small battery plug-in
hybrids, such as Toyota's plans for a plug-in
Prius are more cost-effective and efficient compared to
large battery plug-ins, such as the Chevy Volt.
Some critics have even called the Volt a mere publicity
stunt. Even Barack Obama's Auto Task Force claims that the
Volt won't be profitable for at least a decade, and
questions how much GM can afford to put in the Volt.
Ultimately, if GM is absolutely serious about the Volt and
the E Flex Drive, then I believe GM can challenge the
Prius and Toyota's Hybrid Synergy Drive.
Will the Volt be
a Prius killer though?
No, not
unless GM also produces a direct, non-plug-in Prius, just
as Toyota will produce both EVs and plug-in hybrids to
compete with the Volt.
In 2010, the Toyota Prius will far outsell the Volt, and
the plug-in Prius might also outsell the Volt.
Inevitably,
the Chevy Volt is a great piece of technology and an
important step for GM, but GM needs other interim
solutions as well.
posted
by Dahcredyns at
|
Toyota isn't doing plug-ins because of the battery life issue. All of the sudden, the FUD we hear today about how you have to replace the batteries every few years would actually be true.
Without revolutionary, not evolutionary, battery improvements; plug-ins aren't coming to the consumer market. Period. You'd need a battery about ten times the weight of the one in the Prius, given current technology, to have the plug-in capacity and still maintain the 30-70% charge band.
the Volt looks and sounds amazing. Hard to beat the Prius as a solidified urban status symbol. I recently posted a blog regarding transportation in LA and the trendy-ness of the Toyota Prius. check it out! ps. i love your blog
Do you consider lithium ion batteries to be a 'revolutionary' improvement ? They are being tested extensively, and it looks like one of the new electrode solutions will be the home run we need. A123Systems, Sapphire, I've heard of about a dozen companies all with 'good enough' technologies for auto batteries. They are just working on discharge power, charging speeds, and total charging cycles. The chemistries and module designs are being constantly improved and tested. Tesla (company) already has a working car based on the older lithium ion battery chemistries, and engineered the modules to compensate.
Give it a few more years, the tweaking and testing will pay off, and the newest lithium ion batteries will give us a truly impressive next generation of hybrids (2010 at the latest).
And the newest ultra capacitors will be icing on the cake, allowing extremely efficient fast recovery of braking energy.
The results might be revolutionary, but the engineering is definitely incremental evolution. It is coming.
12:44 PM
Robert-
Thanks for the post.
You reminded me of just how revolutionary I believe is lithium. Sure it's going to be incremental, but even the first step will be phenomenal compared to conventional vehicles. Even just a 25 percent increase in Hybrid Synergy Drive fuel economy at the same cost - or even less - is very significant.
By just the second generation of lithium hybrids, the conventional vehicle might be a dead-vehicle driving. The internal combustion engine might be a dead-engine guzzling.
Imagine selling 100,000 lithium powered Prii. Suddenly, lithium might be cost-effective.
Imagine how that not only benefits hybrid technology, but plug-in hybrid technology and electric vehicle technology – not to mention alternative energies, such as solar and wind power.
That's revolutionary.
Hopefully, we'll use this power to end foreign oil dependency, rather than just creating bigger and more powerful energy consuming vehicles.
Fifty years from now history and economics classes might not look back upon this age as the Internet or Computer Revolution, but rather they will look back upon how computers and the Internet were the beginning of the Lithium Revolution.
6:09 PM