The future value of hybrid cars?

This morning as I scanned the news, two articles regarding the future of gasoline caught my attention. First, MSNBC noted that gas prices jumped for the first time in 10 weeks. While many analysts predicted the current drop in gasoline prices from post Katrina highs, as refineries came back on line, the real question has been how low will they go. So, I wondered, have we reached the bottom?

Obviously, gas prices have a huge impact on the value of hybrid cars. The higher gas prices go, the more valuable hybrids become.

Thus, when I saw the second article announcing that the IEA was predicting an increase in demand for oil next year compared to this year, the wheels in my head really started spinning.

Minimally, it appears that current gas prices are probably at the low end of their range covering the next couple of years. Of course, a terrorist attack or another Katrina could spark another huge run-up in oil prices.

Considering that terrorists have pointed to oil as a way to hurt America, and that scientists have pointed out that the next few years could be hurricane intensive, high gas prices seem inevitable for the next few years, but how much higher?

As I sat at my desk pondering this information, MSNBC switched to a segment on oil trading. It turns out that Goldman Sachs envisions a 4 to 5 year spike in oil prices that will eventually push oil prices over $100 per barrel and possibly much higher. This alone could keep gas far above the $3.00 per gallon mark.

If Goldman is correct AND another hurricane smashes refinery capacity in the next couple of years, how high could gas go? While that question is impossible to answer, it's clear that prices could spike much higher than immediately after Katrina.

Over the next five years it seems higher gas prices will be the norm, the only question left is how much higher. Unfortunately, the conditions appear ripe for significantly higher gasoline prices.

How valuable will hybrid vehicles be then?