Extra cost of hybrids made back within 5 years

A new study by the Booz Allen Hamilton Consulting Firm published in the Wall Street Journal claims that hybrid cars could claim 20% of the car market by 2010.

According to the journal, "At current gasoline prices, the premium paid for hybrid technology will be offset in five years by gas savings and tax rebates."

By 2015, the study claims that hybrid cars could be 80% of the car market - some huge numbers.

Since most automakers, other than Toyota and Honda, won't really get into the hybrid market until 2007-2008 - by their own predictions - the numbers seem hopeful, or maybe depressing for American automakers.

Since the only American hybrid, the Ford Escape Hybrid SUV, leases its technology from Toyota's Prius, American automakers might not start huge productions of hybrids until they have a proprietary hybrid powertrain developed.

For example, Ford is only expecting to sell 20,000 of its Escape Hybrids for the next couple of years, and it will be at least a couple of years before any other hybrids are added to the Ford lineup.

Of course Toyota and Honda are already positioned to fulfill the needs of this emerging market - with or without their American counterparts. Surely, the success of the Toyota Prius Hybrid Car had to be a shock for the Big 3, and the release of the Honda Accord Hybrid in December, has to have Detroit a bit nervous and rattled.

Already Japan is sinking into European market share, and hurting American divisions in Europe. GM Europe is posting huge losses and 30,000 plus layoffs are being contemplated. Some factories are certain to close.

Is the U.S next?

Probably not, at least not in the near future. Still, it seems the U.S needs to make a move, or face more market share decline in America, as well as the world.

Just following the trend won't be enough for Detroit. Somehow they have to commit to dominating the hybrid car market, or they have to come up with an alternative vision for the future - that can be sold yesterday (O.K., at least today).

Talking about the future isn't good enough when your competitors are already in the future.